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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (94543)	12/23/1999 10:55:00 AM
From: Tony Viola	Respond to of 186894

Brian, yes, flash memory is unbelievably hot. I think Paul estimated Intel makes money on it starting next year? Paul, please correct me if I read that post on flash of yours wrong. I lifted a post from the MU thread on our favorite analyst's latest words about MU. Look at the bolded paragraph and tell me why Danny Boy shouldn't upgrade Intel also (all other things being equal, which they never are): Dan Niles of Robertson Stephens issued a new report on Micron Technology this morning. Key points are: 1. Micron reported F00:Q1 operating EPS of $1.19 versus a $0.85 consensus and our $1.07. Revenues were $1.584M (up 47% q/q). We estimate that 64 Meg ASPs rose from $5.20 in Q4 to $9.50-$10.00 in Q1. Sequential bit production growth was 35-40% with shipments roughly flat q/q. Inventory days were essentially flat q/q. 2. Semiconductor GMs increased from 23% to 58% q/q. For FQ1, 75% of wafer starts were on 0.18u with about 3-5% of starts on 0.15u. By CY00 end, 50% of all wafer starts should be on 0.15u. Unfortunately, a big surprise in the outlook was that R&D is expected to increase from approximately %92M in Q1 to $130-135M in Q2 as the company ramps new technology and products such as DDR and 128 Meg. 3. We believe Windows 2000 will act as a catalyst for DRAM demand. We believe that with the impending ramp of Windows 2000 that the average memory content per system will increase with corporate desktops going to 128 Megabytes per system versus 72 MB today. On top of this, we believe that some corporate purchases were withheld in 2H:99 because of Y2K concerns, and that we may see an acceleration of new purchases as a result in 1H:00. 4. We are raising our EPS for FY00 from $5.05 to $5.25 and are establishing a $7.00 EPS for FY2001. The great unknown in the near-term is contract pricing. The normal seasonal pattern is for very minimal demand between the third week in December and the latter part of January. As a result, we expect the stock in the near-term to churn between $70 and $80. By early February we believe the stock can break to new highs driven by Windows 2000 demand.