*OT* TTOSBT and Stockbull - Right on 'Q', here is a timely article on the subject in today's WSJ...
Regards,
John
Y Would You Stop at Y2K?
Other Bugs Are in the Numbers
Y2K may just be a taste of things to come.
Modern civilization can't get by without
numbers. But over and over, people
neglect to use them with much foresight.
How else to explain the Y2K computer
problem? Only a generation back,
computer programmers decided to preserve memory space by
setting aside only two digits to represent a four-digit year.
History will repeat itself after New Year's Eve passes, with a
parade of new computer-related number troubles to worry about,
from phone numbers to Social Security numbers to leap years.
None of these problems are likely to reach the heights attained by
the Year 2000 Bug. 'Y2K was one of the biggest business
problems we have seen in all of human history,' says Capers
Jones, a Y2K consultant. 'The rest of these are small potatoes.'
So consider this a small-potatoes guide, a primer on the other
number bugs, with anxiety ratings from one to three. Y2K skeptics
may note that other supposed date crises were uneventful this
year. One instance: the quiet passing of Sept. 9, 1999, a date
whose shorthand version, 9999, was used as a stop command in
older computer systems.
Others may note that most of today's computer systems won't still
be operational, say, 38 years from now. But just remember, that's
the very logic used by programmers circa 1970.
-- Lee Gomes
The Feb. 29, 2000, Bug
Rating: Two alarms
Problem: Computers don't like leap years. Every four years, like
clockwork, most companies with big mainframes gear up for the
inevitable data-processing hiccups. Computers are programmed
to know that years divisible by 100 are normally not leap years.
But many computers don't know the exception: years divisible by
400 are leap years.
Prognosis: So nasty is the problem that some businesses have
postponed computer installations until March or later. The general
Y2K debugging frenzy is expected to keep technical people on
guard, at least until February passes.
The Running-Out-of-Phone-Numbers Bug
Rating: One alarm
Problem: The 10 digits in U.S. phone numbers theoretically
make for 10 billion possible combinations. In practice, it's a lot
fewer. Only 646 area codes are usable -- rather than 999 --
because they can't begin with 0 or 1, and numbers like 800 are
set aside for other reasons. About 300 area codes are in use
now, and the rest could be run through as early as 2007, by one
estimate. That eventuality, though, may be pushed back a few
years by better allocating numbers inside area codes, some
think.
Prognosis: Something called the Industry Numbering
Committee, a trade group, is hard at work crunching digits to
determine when, and by how much, phone numbers will need to
be lengthened. Computer programs are littered with phone
numbers, but any changes to them should be less disruptive for
programmers than the problems Y2K wrought.
The 2019 Window Bug
Rating: Three alarms
Problem: Instead of changing every two-digit date reference in a
computer program to four digits, many programmers used a
quick-and-dirty shortcut called 'windowing.' They simply agreed
that '00' would represent 1920, 01 would represent 1921, and so
on. The approach buys time until the year 2019 rolls over. Then,
unfortunately, many computers will read the following year as
1920.
Prognosis: This one raises a lot of worries. There was no
consensus on what the new window ought to be: Some programs
have it extending to 2015, others to 2019. That means that
different programs, even at the same company, will have different
windows expiring at different times. Think turmoil.
The Year 2038 Unix Bug
Rating: Three alarms
Problem: This is a virtual replay of Y2K -- involving the Unix
operating system widely used in business and academia. Most
Unix systems store dates based on the number of seconds that
have elapsed since Jan. 1, 1970, the birthday of what is
immodestly known in Unix circles as the 'Unix Epoch.' But Unix
sets aside only four 'bytes' of storage space for this, enough for
2.14 billion seconds. On Jan. 19, 2038 (at about 3:15 a.m.,
Greenwich Mean Time), the Unix odometer is supposed to roll
over. Or not. No one quite knows what will happen next.
Prognosis: This bug should be easier to fix than Y2K, because
Unix systems tend to get date information in one consistent way.
Still, this has the makings of a big, messy data-processing
problem. Does 2038 seem too far away to worry about? Many
Y2K problems were first detected in 1970, when banks tried to
record 30-year mortgages.
The Running-Out-of-Social-Security-Numbers Bug
Rating: One alarm
Problem: The nine-digit Social Security number can handle one
billion numbers. But, just as with phone numbers, there won't be
that many, since the first three digits are set aside for specific
states. More than 400 million numbers have been assigned.
When will we run out? 'We haven't even started to look at that
question,' says a spokeswoman for the Social Security
Administration. Some people estimate it will happen around
2050.
Prognosis: Social Security numbers appear frequently in
databases, but are less problematic. The figures aren't added or
subtracted like dates. One way to buy more time: reuse Social
Security numbers of long-dead people. That could, however,
create new data-processing problems of its own. And it's creepy. |
