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Biotech / Medical : NPSP NPS Pharmaceutical -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: biowa who wrote (54)	12/28/1999 12:03:00 AM
From: WTDEC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 363

biowa, Well NPSP has nearly doubled in the two trading days since Matt Geller at CIBC issued his upgrade to 'Strong Buy' and more than doubled since Bob Toth at Pru Vector pointed out that NPSP was very undervalued a few days before that. Both Geller and Toth have issued solid reports. CIBC and Pru Vector should be proud of their respective analysts. No one should invest on the basis of this summary. You should read the full reports available at CIBC and Pru Vector. As promised, here is a brief recap of Geller's report. He upgraded for the following reasons: > Considerable synergies from the merger. > A full pipeline post-merger with 7 clinical programs, 3 in pre-clinic work, and 2 in discovery stage. > He projects AMG-073 will exceed $500 Million in peak level sales with a 10% royalty to NPSP (that alone would be $2.50 per share). > Geller felt NPSP (then at $5.50) was trading at a 77% discount to its peer group as its pipeline was not being properly valued. He gave $19 as his new 12-month price target. > A strong series of events in 2000. - Out-licensing of one or more programs. - P2 results for AMG-073 and ALX-0600. - Initiate P3 for both AMG-073 (in 2H 2000) and ALX 1-11 (soon). - Start clinical trials for one or more pipeline compounds. AMG-073 (HPT): As we know, the P2 being conducted by Amgen is nearing completion. Geller believes AMG-073 is safe and effective and that P3 trials will start in 2H of 2000. AMG-073 is likely to be the first drug ever approved for primary hyperparathyroidism (HPT). Further, it should have a big market in secondary HPT as no adequate treatment exists. There is no visible competition and Amgen and Kirin in Southeast Asia are powerful partners who should rapidly penetrate the market. ALX1-11 (Osteoporosis): A recombinant parathyroid hormone (PTH), ALX1-11 increased lower spine bone mass by almost 7% after 12 months of use in the P2 trial. Results were presented in December of 1998 and P3 trials will start soon. (biowa or anyone...do you know why P3 was not started any sooner???). Widespread and prolonged use of ALX1-11 may be limited due to cost and injection requirement for a PTH. However, NPSP is also developing small-molecule, orally available compounds for Osteo with SKB. These are known as calcilytics and are in pre-clinical with selection of a compound underway. Geller believes if successful, calcilytics will have major advantages over PTH, although PTH will likely be on the market well before the small-molecule. Osteo drugs require very long trials. ALX-0600 (Bowel diseases): A protein drug believed to stimulate the growth of the lining of small intestines. A pilot P2 trial for short bowel syndrome (SBS) is ongoing. SBS is a major unmet need and NPSP has filed for orphan drug status. The drug may also help with mucositis and inflammatory bowel diseases. Geller believes NPSP will probably partner ALX-0600. NPS-1506 (Stroke): P1 results were presented in April 1998 and a P1b trial in stroke patients was started in July 1998. While NPSP believes this compound may be eligible for 'fast track' status with the FDA, NPSP will likely out-license NPS-1506 prior to a P2 trial. NPS-1776 (Epilepsy and other Neuro-disorders): Clinical trials of this small-molecule drug began in early 1999. NPS-1776 may also treat anxiety, migraine headachs, spasticity and mood disorders. ALX-0646 (Migraine): In P1 (which is being repeated at FDA request), this novel small-molecule ('triptan') may avoid cardiovascular problems seen in the triptan class. Out-licensing is anticipated. ALE-26015 (Dementia): NPSP and Pharm-Eco Labs completed a P1 and plan to out-license the compound. Metabotropic Glutamate Receptors (MGluRs) Preclinical Program: MGluRs are "structurally homologus" to calcium receptors where NPSP is expert. Three different classes of small molecules have been identified and in-vivo development of lead compounds is underway. These have potential utility in a wide range of CNS disorders such as chronic pain, epilepsy, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and schizophrenia. Excitatory Animo Acid (EAA) Receptor Antagonists: These drugs are ion channel blockers which have multiple possible indications, but neuropathic pain is the likely first target. NPSP and partner Lilly have selected compounds for preclinical development. Glycine Re-uptake Inhibitors: Seems to me to be two activities here. One targets GlyT-2 to regulate spacticity conditions found in spinal cord injury, MS, stroke and cerebral palsy. The second, with Janssen, is in development for schizophrenia and dementia. Not much more was said about these...must be early, secret, or maybe Geller was running out of steam <G>. * * * * * Well that is it. Again, I urge investors to read the entire report and do further DD before investing. Best regards, Walter