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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (35872)	12/23/1999 1:29:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Lee, the question is what that fibo retracement drop will do to confidence. if confidence is sufficiently eroded the bottom could fall out of this market quickly. i'm not trying to predict when or from what level this may occur, but in view of the extraordinarily lofty levels most stocks are at i can imagine similarly extraordinary drops when the time comes. agree btw. that the ad-based business model, while valid, is not deserving anywhere near the multiples now accorded these stocks. regards, hb

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (35872)	12/23/1999 1:37:00 PM
From: Zog	Respond to of 99985

I agree completely with all your thoughts. I think that the radio analogy is a good one, except for the fact it is much easier to ignore the ads on the web then it is on the radio. In fact, I have heard (third hand) that Media Matrix data on banner rates shows a return to advertisers of less than 6%. Therefore, they should forget the advertising and just invest the money in Tbills! This whole B2B is ridiculous. They are just a service company - essentially middle man. I bet CMDX has a larger market cap than most of its suppliers! Look at CMRC, with a price to SALES (there are, of course no earnings, nor will there be any in years) of around 300! Of course, Jim Cramer is stroking himself with his childish "Red Hots" and "B2B rotisserie league." I was just thinking about the old days in the oil service sector. I remember on stock, Friede Goldman (FGII in those days). I remember people saying the CEO (Holloway) was a God, and that they had more orders for rigs than they could finish in 20 years (they actually made something!). They peaked at 46.5 in 11/97, and now (after merging with Halter), they are around 7. Amazing how things change over time. Ok, I'm off my soap box for today. Anyone notice that the nets are not looking too happy again today? Perhaps we are indeed seeing sector rotation into the "value" stocks. If this continues, the MO MOs may leave this sector in January.