To: marginmike who wrote (56467 ) 12/24/1999 4:33:00 PM From: John Biddle Respond to of 152472
1)NOK wanted a deal that reduced royalties, IRWIN stood firm(as he always does). I would have prefered inroad into Europe and Nok Chip deal, but I trust IJ. It is not IDEAL, and certain questions about Europe and 3G will get more Noisey in weeks to come Possibly right about NOK and royalty rates, almost assuredly right about Irwin standing firm. He may compromise with the Chinese on this, but must be firm with everyone in order to have the ability to come away with only a small compromise with the Chinese. A European chip deal would have been more easily understood by the street, and more lucrative in the very short term, but this deal is better for reasons explained elsewhere on this and the other thread.2)Nok in my opinion will not buy Q Chips. Unless they are absolutly laughed out of market in short term they will not rely future on Q. In the long term to survive they need in house chips. This to me is the BIG drawback here. I know many here think Nok will buy chips but dont count on it I agree with you here but for different reasons. They are proud but practical people and don't go with the Q because of some Q hatred but because they see Q as a competitor. When Q let's go of phones for real they'll buy. Otherwise they'll go with their own if they can (I bet no) or an ASIC licensee (still pretty good).3)I do not think Europe will see CDMA for at least 3-5 years. There are to few who would benifit as European manufacturers. This is also a draw back You may be right here. After all, it won't be a market decision it will have a significant political component. They don't call it fortress Europe for nothing. The best bet for us is a fantastic implementation in the Far East to prove beyond and to the exclusion of any reasonable doubt the huge superiority of CDMA 2k and HDR.4)On a positive note it looks like by going with KYO they are gaining a foothold in the CDMA Device market(as opposed to just phones). They also get HDR of the ground, and have a partner who will build and grow with Q. I would rather have a partner who wants to grow together, then one who wants to beat you to death and take all your money(NOK ERICY). I assume you are talking about handheld computing devices? Q brought PDq to the table so I'm not sure what you mean by them gaining a foothold. You are right on the money, though with your comment about better to have a partner working with you than against you. 4)IF(a big If)China goes CDMA Europe will have balkanized itself once again. They will NEVER give in, and will cut its nose to spite its face. In the long term QCOM will succeed without Europe. The best case scenario is that VOD converts its system to WCDMA. In the worst Q will get Royalty on expencive dual mode phones Europe can do this but probably won't. Mq post 127.0.0.1 :3456/SI/~wsapi/investor/reply-12377218 with bicycle race analogy is particularly perceptive on this one. 5)The fact is getting the Number 1 Phone maker to sign on would have been a huge coup. It was alot to ask for. I am not thrilled nor am I unhappy with the deal as it stands. Please be patient. I believe you will soon be thrilled.