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To: Brent Hogenson who wrote (57335)	12/26/1999 12:30:00 PM
From: diana g	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

SLB/RIG Hi Brent, you wrote <<<"The one thing I don't understand about this SLB - RIG gig is why didn't SLB sell off December 20th. If that was the record date, SLB shares should now trade without the benefit of getting the spin off. So theoretically, SLB should have opened down about 5 points on Dec 21st....">>> I believe the SLB shrs traded between the 21st and the end of the year have RIG shrs 'attached' at the 1 to 5 ratio, so we will see the appropriate drop in SLB after that. you wrote <<<"...I still don't think we get the sell off that everybody is anticipating. The S&P funds are now going to be net buyers of RIG since it has been added to the index instead of sellers. ...I say RIG is in the upper 30's by this time next month. >>> I agree that RIG will do well in the long run -- that's why I want to buy some!!<G> Upper 30's by late January sounds overly optimistic, but not impossible, imho. But I do think we will still see a serious dip at the beginning of January. The index funds (and other funds) with current SLB holdings will hold onto a lot of that new RIG stk rather than sell it. And there may be net buying, as you say, but I'm not sure of the extent of that. Do you have a source of information as to how much RIG the index funds will want to hold? & therefore the amount of additional RIG they will need to be buying? ---Until proved otherwise, I don't think that institutional buying is likely to be sufficient to sop up the large # of new shrs. I see Institutional Ownership of SLB at 66%. Even if All such institutional owners hold their new RIG shrs, that will still leave approx 37 million new RIG shrs. ---Of course there may be far fewer than 37 million for sale. That will depend on individual, non-institutional owners of SLB. Now that RIG will be an S&P500 company, it will be more attractive to the folks who own SLB, and some of them are surely index mimics themselves. ---But I think there will still be sellers. More sellers than buyers. Enough to pressure the price down a good bit. ---So I still expect a dip, altho I don't think there's much chance I'll get any $20 RIG now. I'll be watching and hopeing for a good price. Maybe I won't get that opportunity. We'll see what happens. just mvho regards, diana