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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (30199)	12/23/1999 9:48:00 PM
From: Al Serrao	Respond to of 50167

Brovo Uncle Ike, another great post! Anyone who does not have a high opinion of himself can never have a high opinion of anyone else. You kept me from selling out too soon as often happens in these bull runs.The SPX never broke 1402 so I kept my longs. I believe now I will concentrate on the DIAs instead of the QQQs or the MDY since the DOW had the biggest move today. May you and your family have the best of Christmas and New Year. Peace.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (30199)	12/23/1999 10:31:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Well I started to repond here numerous times but decided to bite my tongue again and again. Well I did say I admired you sticking your neck out and we on MDA all know the critisism it brings via PMs and publicly. My only point was your constant patting on the back even when wrong. If you really wants your kids to learn from what you write, then admit when you are right AND when wrong. I write down your calls daily as I lurk and this week you were clearly short as 1430 was broken on the down side using your Monday call and all longs were exited resulting in a squeeze as the next day bounced up 10 points before one could cover. Your 1442 long side call wasn't realized until after a gap up open so if you bought the first cross of 1442, you would have been late getting in and premiums would have been at their peak eroding quickly as the market went flat the rest of the day. If you had waited for two closes above 1442 as you said you should do, you wouldn't have bought until this morning and you would have only recieved part of the move unless you were lightening fast and had an exceptional broker that didn't want a cut on his end of the spread. You also would be buying in as the bond made a new record 2 year low. Yes anything is possible and you may have come out on top, but this is no less risky or smart trading than buying a momentum stock near the top praying that someone else will overpay by more. Yes, you ARE good, but if you really wants your kids to learn from this trading, then you should be honest about what you did right or wrong and not try to look infallable. God knows I admit my bad calls. I wrote up a paper trade (thank goodness) last night on QQQ puts (on the TSO thread) and I make picks when possible at my website almost daily and post when entering and exiting on many of them at the time so there is no hindsight potential. On the QQQ position I would have been down 20% already. Now if the QQQ drops in 3 weeks will I claim that these are winners even after the premium erosion has withered them to nothing? How will that help me trade next time? You are good and I admire your sharing. As the last time I posted though, you never claim to make a bad call. You claim through your hedges to always come out on top yet those spreads are not written here and even the best hedge funds don't bat 1000 using super computers and being able to hedge for currency swaps, bond ratios and tricks of the trade not available to us mortals. No ill will was intended but a little humorous jabbing is the norm over there. Lastly, we are not bears, we are realists. The NASDAQ is up over 80% yet the average stock is down sharply from the April 98 top. Each new high in the indexes has been on fewer and fewer stocks since then and even today's rally while it was the best breadth in months was not all inclusive. The bull markets of just 2 years ago were on over 400 new highs and new lows in double digits on both all exchanges those days are gone as the numbers have reversed for 2 years. If you actually read our thread regularly, or my own site, you would see that we all play the long side as well as the short and most have been long for months. I actually posted on the MDA thread the day the bottom was hit and took many good ribbings for it at the time. I scalped numerous positions this week all long but I am watching and waiting for this top to hit in a few weeks max that is going to be even more profitable than months of longs have been. I then see a bounce into summer then a much much scarier drop. As for challenges, I work full time and maintain my own market web site with hundreds of charts that show my biases for action. I also write a brief commentary each night so I dont have time for another place to post views. I haven't the time to look over a months posts much less a week's worth to show you where you were wrong. I posted the numbers I had from some of the posts this week and you were still sounding bearish due to the BKX last night. My direction is given on my web site where my message board holds the plays. Unfortunately I ran out of storage space and had to wipe out some of the early ones both right and wrong and I am not even sure which ones still remain since I erase mine first and try to keep my visitors comments as long as possible. I did call CA this week and a scalp for SFA worked well but was no home run. BGEN has been on the list for weeks. I would like to think most of my calls have made some people money but due to my employment, I can not host a SI thread and post real time moves during the day. I make my calls the night before and stick with them. If the day turns, so be it, the position is lost but since that is how I have to trade being military and away from the market, then that is how my guidance is geared. It is aimed toward the working man that can not babysit positions. My plays are cautios and high percentage because in the options game, you HAVE to be right or you die. Stocks are more forgiving. If you are wrong, wait it out in a bull market and you can usually get close to your money back. Options are time sensitive and the move has to happen immediately. Anyway, I rant. No ill will was intended and I wish you, your family and all lurkers Happy Holidays whatever way you choose to celebrate. I think if you look at some charts though, you will find where many could have lost big this week and a couple weeks ago. On paper it may look right but in the realm of trading real aorld, the whipsaws got you. Your doing a great job but if you really want your kids to learn, then give them the wisdom of where a strategy didn't work out and what could have been done differently. On paper I am a billionaire, in the real world where trades get slow executions, fills get missed, exits get scalped, that is where we all come up short changed. Some of the levels lately have been right at whipsaw points where followers could have been destroyed. Believe what you will but a look in the mirror is often the hardest task yet reaps the most rewards. Keep posting and keep making the calls. In the end we can only hope that we come out ahead. Good Luck and Happy Holidays, Lee