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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: w molloy who wrote (56546)	12/23/1999 9:38:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 152472

Aha, I think we agree! Yes, there will be interim steps on the way to 3G. The big question is the speed of that transition. Service providers will not want to be first to provide the latest technology because they will spend a $billion to introduce HDR at which time there will not be any customers. They'll have to get customers, which will take some time. When they have done that, their competitor can change their network over at lower cost [due to technology developing and manufacturer competition], more efficiency with better subscriber devices and then get a lot of the market leader's customers in a short time. While the second provider is waiting, they'll be enjoying the profits from the old GSM system [or TDMA in AT&T case, PHS in others etc]. Not only that, they'll start picking up GSM customers from the service provider who overlaid GSM with CDMA unless the GSM overlay is done very carefully to avoid GSM disruption. In Europe they'll use new spectrum, so not such a problem I suppose. BUT there is a serious problem for the second adopter. Things might move very fast and they'll be left in the dust, with no GSM customers and few CDMA customers. It's going to be a bit like those Olympic bicycle races where everyone pedals really, really slowly, then at some instant, they all decide the race is on and they go like hell in sheer frenzy. You can't be first, but you better not be more than an instant after the first one goes if it looks like the right time. You get in the slipstream and get an easy ride. Qualcomm, Microsoft and Korea Telecom Freetel and now Kyocera and the DDI/Toyota etc group are ready to put the early pressure on. Others better have their strategies lined up ready to go. There are a lot of variables which will decide when they all start pedalling like crazy. Web development and numbers will be the main issue. Bluetooth will be another - that will be good for WWeb. So will cheaper and more universal fibre from Global Crossing, JDSU, Cisco and whoever be good. Cheap enough and powerful enough notebook puters will be another. Maybe it won't be until the end of 2001 or even into 2002 before anyone gets excited, but my guess it will be sooner rather than later. This is a race they won't want to come last in. Who'll be first? It seems that DDI and co will be in Japan. Korea Freetel, NextWave, Leap Wireless will maybe be the starters elsewhere. Qualcomm can afford to start the race because they need the race to be going in the flat-out mode, not the slow-pedalling period. That's what Qualcomm [and Microsoft] have done with Korea Telecom Freetel - started the race. Now they have really got it going with the Kyocera deal. Mqurice