To: Ruffian who wrote (56557 ) 12/23/1999 11:42:00 PM From: LBstocks Respond to of 152472
Why Qualcomm's Big News Fell So Flat By Alec Appelbaum and Lawrence Carrel QUALCOMM (QCOM) stock moved more than 3% lower and was one of the market's top volume losers following news it planned to sell its phone-making business to Japan's Kyocera (KYO). Analysts have been clamoring for a deal for months, but had hoped the selling partner would be Nokia (NOK) or Motorola (MOT) not a relatively obscure Japanese company. What's the difference? Nokia and Motorola are the major players in the phone business and would have made much bigger customers for Qualcomm's CDMA chips. Of course, everything's relative with this stock. QCOM shares began the year below $30 a share and soared above $500 earlier this week ? a gain of more than 1,600%. After the first hour of trading this morning, they'd sagged back to about $466, leaving investors with a paltry little 1,450% gain for the year. Essentially, the logic of selling the handset business was already built into the stock long before it happened. Qualcomm told Wall Street months ago that it would unload the low-margin unit in order to concentrate on the high-margin part of its business. And regardless of the buyer, Wall Street is still extremely bullish on the stock. Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown estimates that overall gross margins will improve to almost 60% from the current level of about 40%. Qualcomm helped pioneer a digital-communications technology known as code division multiple access, or CDMA. The San Diego company has long sold its own digital phones and other equipment, but recently shifted strategies to narrow its focus to licensing its CDMA software and building sets of CDMA chips. Now that Kyocera has bought the handset business, it will remain a customer for Qualcomm chips. But a bigger buyer would have potentially provided a bigger customer. Earlier this week, some shareholders saw the pitfalls ahead. "If they sell to Nokia or Motorola, their stock is up," predicted Jeff Wrona, manager of the PBHG Technology & Communications Fund (PBTCX), in an interview with SmartMoney.com on Tuesday. "It's all a matter of who they sell to and if they get a supply agreement on the chip side." After the fact, Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown analyst Brian Modoff, who has revised his price targets on Qualcomm shares several times this fall, rushed to defend the deal in a note to clients. He pointed out that Kyocera is making a five-year purchase commitment for Qualcomm technology and forking over "several hundred million dollars of cash." Credit Suisse First Boston concurred, giving Qualcomm stock a Buy rating this morning and noting Kyocera will open the door for Qualcomm's further expansion in Asia. Other houses chimed in with lukewarm support, pointing out that Qualcomm is making good on its promise to leave the low-margin handset business. But after the stock climbed 900% on the promise of such a move, such reassurances sounded like Republicans forced to defend George Bush's selection of Dan Quayle. The choice meets all the points on a checklist, but without much star power. Modoff's team urged investors to treat significant drops in Qualcomm shares as a buying opportunity, citing their oft-told conviction that CDMA will become the dominant medium for wireless data and that Qualcomm will now become a more profitable shop. However, after inflating this stock to a trailing P/E over 400, investors may be finicky about finding new reasons to loft it any higher. smartmoney.com