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To: JungleInvestor who wrote (57363)	12/24/1999 9:50:00 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 95453

JI, You know in every great disaster movie there is one person or so who see the danger clearly, but they are ignored by "everyone else" as some kind of an alarmist wierdo? This could make a great disaster flick, BUT as you note it does not take a disaster to move markets, a percent or two over time added to demand and subtracted from supply will do the trick quite nicely. The markets are just doing a great job of playing the role of "everyone else", some market theories could get tested here, we shall see if the market is properly discounting universal knowledge.

To: JungleInvestor who wrote (57363)	12/24/1999 10:40:00 AM
From: Razorbak	Respond to of 95453

Y2K Affects Economics, Not Just Psychology JungleInvestor: If software at power plants needs to be replaced, there would need to be a substantial project to do this for each affected power plant. How many power plants in how many countries would need such projects? Experts would need to go to these countries to manage each project. How many experts would be needed and how many would be available to go to Third World countries. Especially since the dark nights and lack of communications would invite looting, terrorist and guerrilla activities, and lawlessness. Fundamental economics will remain a factor here, perhaps even more so than market psychology. Just keep in mind that Y2K disruptions will affect both supply and demand. IMO, only supply disruptions (i.e., crude production/transportation disruptions) will limit supply and cause crude prices to increase. Demand disruptions (i.e. power plant/refinery outages) will actually limit demand and cause crude prices to fall. The key question is which types of disruptions will dominate. I don't have the answer to that question, but my portfolio is loaded with energy stocks, so I am betting that supply disruptions will have a more visible effect in the market. Nevertheless, demand disruptions cannot be ignored. JMHO. Razor