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Technology Stocks : Frank Coluccio Technology Forum - ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (806)	12/24/1999 9:16:00 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1782

Hi Ray, Your question more or less summarizes a lot of what's been going on in the last mile convergence space, so don't sell yourself too short on savvy. "Wouldn't the role of the PSTN be easily mimicked in the future behind corporate data switches seemlessly connecting to Centrex style systems for businesses and behind headend servers for HFC systems that would provide one or two channels for voice, and behind antennas for wireless last mile providers, thus eliminating the role of the current ILECs and the present PSTN architecture?" There are vendors making these capabilities possible through their wares on a piecemeal basis now, and there are service providers offering like services to consumers and sohos, in particular. You cited HFC, but an even greater level of diversity is being achieved in the dsl area, at least from the standpoint of the number of offerings. And this is in large part, IMO, due to the more restrictive nature of MSO interface standards, and what the head end might connect to. For example, there are quite a few DSL premises devices now which bill themselves as voice pbx alternatives which also allocate, sometimes dynamically, bandwidth for "broadband" data and 'net access. While a CLEC might be willing to cross connect (either physically or virtually through ATM switching) from the DSL access mux in the central office to just about any configuration you can specify (Centrex, router/switched data, ISDN, etc.), the same cannot be said very readily for the MSOs at this time. Instead, where MSOs are concerned, I suspect that the user will have to take matters into their own hands, bringing them to the upper layers of the stack and pointing their services to an alternate SP's offerings at the IP layer. Of course, in the enterprise space, mimicking --and establishing new standards for the way businesses communicate-- has been going on for a long time. The primary inhibitor to the uptake of centrex mimicry by residential end users will not come from any shortage of widget offerings in due time, but because of the hassle factor, earlier on. Mimicking all of the services and features which are now available in Centrex by an HFC soho telecommuter, for example, could become an administrative task of nightmareish proportions for many residentials at the present time. There's simply no intuitive means of achieving this right now, except for those who are highly adept at networking and who will indulge in this from a love-of-labor perspective. [This was once the place for Ham Radio enthusiasts.] And while this population is on the rise in some circles, they, too, desire a hands off level of "seamlessness" which does not exist, yet. Re: HFC, you say, "I just can't engineer one. But I believe I could hire it done." When you're done engineering what it is you want done, make sure that the MSO doesn't have anything standing in your way, like 'use policies,' protocols supported (or not supported), levels of QoS supported, etc. Yes, these forms of mimicry are achievable and will take place over time, but you need to coordinate your personal architecture with that of the service provider's and their peers. Bleeding edgers might relish this, but Joe and Josephine Common definitely will not. And most of the money still resides in Joe-Jo's bank accounts. Or, margin accounts.. Regards, Frank