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Gold/Mining/Energy : coastal caribbean (cco@) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edwin S. Fujinaka who wrote (1194)	12/27/1999 11:42:00 AM
From: Tom Frederick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4686

Ed, (this is a long post, so get a cup of coffee) I think there is a key difference between the money derived from a pay out via the tobacco lawsuits and this situation. The tobacco companies paid the bill to the state of Florida and their pockets are so deep, they can scratch their ankles from inside them if need be. The portion the lawyers made was still a portion of the check written by the tobacco companies. The finances of the CCO case rest on the marginally profitable state and federal govt. The Michigan case, in my opinion, was settled because it was a digestible amount of money and a quick fix to a situation that could have stirred the pot for other suits if it dragged on too long. The State of Florida, I would assume, is looking at the potential price tag on this case and saying to itself very simply, they have a budget they will pay out and not a penny more, regardless of the legal outcome. They can drag this on and try to kill them with a war of attrition and if that doesnt' work, still offer CCO the same existing fund. The state either pays out nothing, or they pay what they always had budgeted. They likely are counting on company people and shareholders to get so tired of the fight, that IF CCO hangs in and lasts till the final appeal, they will accept any offer at a price higher than the current level. CCO could be scared that the state might be on the verge of making an offer with the current fund, but if irritated also be willing to keep this appeal process going on as long as possible. And that could be why you are discouraged from making any "waves". There might be efforts going on behind the scenes, and there are those who might point out that at least the state is at the table to a certain extent since we are in court to determine who owes who what, but I would think that if the state did not make slow but forward progress, they would open themselves up to a clear case of abuse of power. Slow forward progress keeps their noses clean, but I don't think it means they genuinely want to settle the issue to the benefit of CCO. Bottom line, CCO is very likely sitting on one of the largest untapped oil reserves off the Florida coast and possibly in the entire gulf. But without a much bigger partner applying much more effective pressure on the state and federal govt to settle the case, this could still drag on for some time. Then of course there is the money issue. Even if CCO could make the case for the real value, who has the money to pay that? The only way this reserve will get real value is if the oil is sold, generating the money from the endless deep pockets of the oil refiners and eventually you and I who drive cars and buy petroleum based products. THEN we can see full value. For that reason, I wonder why CCO hasn't partnered with Chevron or Mobil or any big company and give up 30% of the profit to get this thing settled. I still believe that this case will eventually be settled, but unlike the tobacco settlement and the huge sums of money available from the companies, the State of Florida just doesn't have that kind of checkbook, so real value will have to come from some other deal than a buyback of the leases. Your idea of payment for non use is the smartest and most workable so far. I hope someone looks at is seriously. Just my opinion. Tom F.