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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockHawk who wrote (13287)	12/25/1999 6:18:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

does this mean that the sequential order of desirable equities is: 1. gorilla....2. godzilla, which is a blend of gorilla/king....and 3. King, in this order? Should we be looking for Godzillas before Kings? In continuation of this discussion I just wanted to add a couple of comments. Considering that historically we don't have much to compare an Internet Godzilla investment with at this point, it is hard to ascertain at this time how much the valuations are related to the lack of the number of issues to invest the capital and how much the 'option effect' of what these companies 'might become' as they grow and acquire extra elements to mold and shape them into what the end result will actually be. Time will - in whatever direction - work all of this out for a historical recording. The fact that it is 'real time' and the stakes are high, the most obvious thing is to only enter the space with capital that one can afford to do without in case the scenario is of the most dire consequences. We do have historical reviews of Kings and former Kings (like Compaq), Gorillas and former Gorillas to know what can happen based on the circumstances of their technological adoption life cycle and the value chains created within the life cycle. They all carry their own weighted element of risk, but we don't have anything to compare the Godzilla to at this point. What will something like AOL, YHOO, DCLK, EBAY, AMZN, Priceline.com or even the 'godzilla element' of Gemstar be worth 5 or 10 years from now as a 'mature' Godzilla. If you want to start a 'heated' discussion at a party or a dinner - just toss out the word Amazon and see what comes up over a glass of wine in terms of 'friendly discussion'. We had two families over last night for Christmas Eve dinner and the 'men' were in a corner and not I, but another in the collection tossed out the word Amazon in relation to an artilce he had read in Time magazine (that greatest of investing publications). I just drank my wine while the other two 'hashed' it out with various emotions for a good 15 minutes. They then moved on to Globalstar, Qualcomm and Freeshop.com for discussion. Being the perfect host, I just kept the red wine flowing into the glasses of the group to 'loosen up' the discussion. Then the ladies joined in and here we were on the Eve of Christmas talking raw capitalism as Santa was flying overhead with a sleigh filled with Pokemon, Star Wars and all the usual suspects eating his cookies and climbing in and out of chimneys. One of the couples at the party were fortunate enough to have invested in Qualcomm earlier this year and sold in December for the simple reason, so they said last night, they were not 'comfortable' making so much money in an investment. After I cleaned the wine off of the wall and carpet (Mike, I could use some new wine resistant floor covering) that came flying out of my mouth and asked them exactly what kind of investment they did feel comfortable owning, I realized that it certainly was not my place to question their 'comfort' level in investing. They mentioned they were more comfortable holding investments that they could 'understand' more and predict the steady slower growth of more 'established' companies (read - already later into the tech adoption life cycle) like Intel, Motorola, Texas Instruments, HP and a few large-caps outside of technology. The risks are all there for Godzillas, Kings and Gorillas - although the risks are weighted on various levels and each investor has to understand the differences and choose the investments that fit in one's 'comfort' zone. One shouldn't ever rule out quality solid investments outside of technology for core holdings. There are many, many excellent solid growth stocks that can provide a handsome 15 to 20 % annual growth rate. If one has a lot of years to invest - that kind of growth can reward the long term investor with handsome returns in some of the world's finest companies. No question that I would place these types of investments ahead of the Godzilla space if I was building a portfolio. Once I had that portion built, then I would think about adding an aggressive growth Godzilla play as possible gravy with the knowledge that it was joining a well balanced portfolio with historically more 'stable' footings in the core Gorilla(s) and non tech growth stocks. In relationship to the manual and comfort zones I thing we would all agree that holding a Gorilla or a few gorillas would be the order of first magnitude - even if that means returns might be uncomfortable because they will dwarf many others. If you extend your technology investing beyond the Gorillas and into the royalty or godzilla spaces, an investor better be prepared to understand their investments and have realistic expectations. Using your ranking system, I think it is hard to rank a King vs. a Gorilla-King (Godzilla) because we don't have enough historical perspective to judge a Godzilla within a technology adoption life cycle at this point. I, personally, cannot avoid the space because I have found too much potential within, but I am very careful to monitor what I am doing and have the realistic expectation that it could all be water under the bridge for some of the issues. However, my family is young and we have many more years of peak earning in our careers as well as many years for investing to invest a portion of our money in the Godzilla space. BB

To: StockHawk who wrote (13287)	12/25/1999 10:16:00 AM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

re this whole "what should we be on the lookout for, gorillas or godzillas or kings" question: I am increasingly leaning toward the view that Gemstar, as Merlin and others have pointed out, can wear all three hats. (Well, one of them's a crown, and from the Magilla cartoon as I recall one's a beanie, and I forget what Godzilla wears--a yarmulke?--but you know what I mean. Think Cerberus in a hat shop.) So--if Gemstar does indeed have all three elements, and if it is still generally undiscovered by the street at large, wouldn't that make it the single most promising Y2K investment candidate in our stable? (Well, since it's Cerberus, maybe it's outside guarding the stable.<g>) I was struck by how different our discussions of Gemstar are from the general ones in the press surrounding its Naz100 entry, indicating that--for example--its godzilla potential is still almost entirely unappreciated. If we're right, it could a very big year for Henry et al. I intend therefore (if/when I can raise some more cash) to focus my next bets on GMST, with the aim of bringing it into closer proximity to Q in my portfolio (although still in second place). Anybody have any feelings on why this might be a bad idea? bubbleboy/Ares@Q99,G2K.com PS Happy Holidays to all :0) PPS Bruce, you might have showed your guests that passage from Lynch about the Wal-Mart investors who got out at the beginning of the 80s, because they felt guilty about making so much money. Great insight from that passage that still sticks with me: "A stock doesn't care who owns it," and will make or lose money on its own future prospects regardless of whether you buy or sell.

To: StockHawk who wrote (13287)	12/25/1999 11:32:00 AM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Merry Christmas everyone! Lets all take a few moments to reflect on the good fortune we have had in finding this fine thread. For the past months we have been treated to the delights of Mike Buckley's brains LindyBill's guts Frank's charm Bruce's experience tekboy's research abilities the enthusiasm of freeus the savvy of unclewest the humor of Mike Buckley (ok, perhaps not) the focus of cha2 the good cheer of Squire J the affability of Stan the constant flow of bright newcomers and most important of all Frank's leadership and while we are reflecting on good tidings and year-end I thought I would repost one of my favorite off-topic postings, tekboy's 10 thread commandments: To: Uncle Frank who started this subject From: tekboy Tuesday, Oct 19 1999 12:16PM ET Reply # 8500 of 8591 A Decalogue for Prodigal Investors (offered as penance for flirtation with heresies) 1. I am the Q thy Gorilla, who brought thee out of the land of mediocrity, out of the house of penury. 2. Thou shalt have no other Gorillas before me, excepteth those that meeteth the tests laid out in the Holy Manual. 3. Thou shalt not take the names of the Gorillas in vain, nor try to time them, for they will not hold him guiltless that taketh their names in vain or tryeth to time them. 4. Remember the sabbath day, to keep it holy, at least until the major houses sponsoreth secure and liquid trading on a 24/7 basis. 5. Honor thy uncle, that thy days may be long upon the thread which he hath given thee, and the authors of the Holy Manual, who hath blazed a path to riches for all. 6. Thou shalt not kill thy profits by selling too early, but reinforce winners while cutting off losers, as doeth the Russian Army. 7. Thou shalt not commit adultery with Shiny Pebbles, nor hold Royalty tightly. 8. Thou shalt not try to steal even more obscene returns by using options or margin, unless there are very special circumstances and thou really knowest what thou doest. 9. Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy threadmates, nor spread FUD of any kind in the land. 10. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor's returns, nor tryeth to chase such returns by entering before the Tornado hath begun, and certainly not before the Chasm hath been crossed. and to all a good night - and another profitable year. StockHawk