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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (36002)	12/25/1999 11:22:00 AM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I've been reading The Internet Bubble over the weekend. That article points up something that has plagued me in the past 2-3 years "In early 1990s, a stock was hot if it went up two points its first day. If it went up six points, it was on fire. Now it goes up 100 points," said Dan Burke, an analyst with Gomez Advisors, a consulting firm. "This is incomprehensible for people with a deep history of the market. It defies anything they've ever seen. Younger people say, 'Let's ride.' What they don't know hasn't hurt them yet." I'm fairly young but got started in the market at a very early age because of my father's profession as a market reporter. I remember in 1996 being bewildered by Dell going up 6-8 points in a day. It used to be if a stock went up 6-8 points in a year, that was a helluva move. So, I have never been able to put money into these rocket ships and just leave it there, especially if it has no earnings or can't be measured by a recognizable value matrix. These stocks which go up 50 points and more per day just confound me and the people who think that's normal and will continue confound me even more. So, I've adopted a scalping method, trying to take bites out of these moves and get out. In the past week, I have been buying tax selling victims at some amazing prices and yet I feel awfully stupid for not being in CMRC the other day <G>. What would happen to the CMRC, JDSU, QCOMs of the world if something awful happened overnight some day, maybe Greenspan has a heart attack, someone nukes someone else, I don't know, some world event. That's what keeps me from holding them even overnight, much less long term. But I'm the world's biggest chicken.

To: Les H who wrote (36002)	12/25/1999 3:30:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

Advance/Decline and Moving Average Relationships By Sector: Dec 23, 1999 percent stocks advance percent stocks over MA sector 5 d 21 d 63 d 250d 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d ---------------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- General Market 12/23 57 49 52 50 57 52 53 46 12/17 43 43 46 50 45 44 51 45 low 12/14 39 45 44 51 39 40 49 44 12/10 39 49 44 52 43 44 51 45 high 12/03 48 55 46 51 50 51 57 47 low 10/18 16 24 26 51 19 23 24 35 Aerospace/Defense 64 60 23 21 64 64 55 17 Apparel (incl Retail) 48 45 36 46 62 48 37 30 Automotive 61 37 22 24 66 46 32 17 Banks 42 10 33 22 35 17 12 17 Biotechnology 83 77 78 77 78 77 81 80 Building/Construction 65 36 27 25 60 48 40 20 Chemical 42 41 51 46 59 46 51 28 Commercial Services 60 63 61 46 57 60 67 52 Computer Equipment 53 65 72 67 49 63 75 72 Consumer Nondurable 37 37 37 27 46 34 49 29 Drug (excl Biotech) 69 43 51 44 70 49 47 41 Electronics (incl Semi) 68 70 75 81 69 70 78 78 Environmental 55 32 36 14 45 32 23 23 Financial (incl S&L) 56 25 47 42 44 31 32 30 Foods 57 18 31 20 55 30 26 23 Healthcare 48 40 41 38 48 46 47 36 Household Products 55 43 45 38 53 48 48 28 Insurance 58 24 46 22 57 41 34 27 Internet 51 57 78 68 47 55 68 66 Leisure 55 42 40 43 51 43 45 36 Machinery 45 41 37 41 53 39 43 31 Media 75 85 79 78 73 86 80 77 Metals (excl Gold) 44 51 41 59 55 53 50 46 Oil & Gas 50 27 30 67 62 43 33 35 Paper Products & Pkg 64 62 52 50 68 62 62 40 Real Estate 75 43 20 21 66 58 35 9 Retail 49 37 38 36 51 40 39 29 Semiconductors 78 79 87 93 76 80 86 91 Software 65 77 85 74 61 70 87 81 Telecommunications 69 72 83 82 68 72 81 82 Transportation 51 39 42 37 57 49 42 28 Utilities 54 31 28 24 61 35 23 30 New Highs and Lows for Market ( 3640 stocks sans CEFs, trusts) sector 20-days 40-days 63-days 1-year ---------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- General Market 12/23 478 - 247 367 - 152 324 - 118 223 - 68 12/17 336 - 457 266 - 287 237 - 241 159 - 168 low 12/14 231 - 650 202 - 395 170 - 329 117 - 226 12/10 369 - 525 313 - 347 273 - 299 189 - 184 high 12/03 487 - 277 399 - 167 343 - 141 251 - 89 low 10/18 72 - 904 48 - 715 32 - 613 22 - 289 New 20-day and 1-Year Highs and Lows By Sector December 23, 1999 December 17, 1999 sector 20-days 1-year 20-days 1-year ---------------------- --------- --------- --------- --------- Aerospace/Defense 5 - 1 2 - 0 2 - 6 0 - 5 Apparel (incl Retail) 10 - 6 8 - 1 7 - 12 3 - 10 Automotive 5 - 5 1 - 1 4 - 10 1 - 9 Banks 3 - 10 1 - 6 0 - 47 0 - 29 Biotechnology 28 - 1 25 - 1 13 - 5 11 - 2 Building/Construction 12 - 10 2 - 6 8 - 19 3 - 8 Chemical 8 - 5 4 - 2 5 - 9 4 - 5 Commercial Services 43 - 16 33 - 9 36 - 18 29 - 5 Computer Equipment 23 - 12 20 - 3 14 - 9 9 - 0 Consumer Nondurable 2 - 5 1 - 2 4 - 10 1 - 6 Drug (excl Biotech) 11 - 4 10 - 3 4 - 13 3 - 3 Electronics (incl Semi) 40 - 14 32 - 4 32 - 14 28 - 2 Environmental 0 - 2 0 - 0 1 - 4 0 - 4 Financial (incl S&L) 8 - 7 4 - 3 4 - 11 2 - 7 Foods 1 - 5 0 - 5 4 - 14 2 - 9 Healthcare 18 - 13 12 - 10 11 - 28 5 - 13 Household Products 4 - 3 4 - 3 3 - 4 2 - 4 Insurance 14 - 4 6 - 2 2 - 18 1 - 4 Internet 30 - 36 26 - 30 30 - 8 25 - 11 Leisure 14 - 10 6 - 9 3 - 18 1 - 9 Machinery 6 - 3 1 - 1 0 - 7 0 - 6 Media 28 - 0 18 - 4 23 - 0 16 - 1 Metals (excl Gold) 10 - 7 6 - 3 9 - 7 6 - 4 Oil & Gas 18 - 11 7 - 10 6 - 14 3 - 8 Paper Products & Pkg 10 - 0 4 - 0 2 - 4 2 - 0 Real Estate 13 - 3 2 - 3 17 - 4 2 - 4 Retail 30 - 27 22 - 12 19 - 31 11 - 20 Semiconductors 22 - 5 22 - 0 18 - 4 16 - 0 Software 24 - 8 19 - 1 28 - 9 26 - 2 Telecommunications 43 - 9 38 - 1 35 - 15 32 - 1 Transportation 9 - 2 1 - 2 10 - 16 5 - 11 Utilities 9 - 6 3 - 3 1 - 33 0 - 28