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To: yard_man who wrote (81105)	12/25/1999 11:05:00 AM
From: Thomas M.	Respond to of 86076

{just another clown who doesn't get it} BLIND LONG-TERM INVESTING The mantra of the majority of advisors, brokers, strategists, etc. is "Buy and hold for the long term." They do this regardless of clear signs of technical weakness preceding 1987, 1998 and this year. We could go back to 1928, and about 15 other times since then, to support my view of "timing" the market. What has deadened the pain of 1987, 1998 and 1999 (so far) has been the fact that after legitimate bear markets ended, the market began its uptrend in short order. We haven't seen an 18-month bear market similar to 1973-74, in a long time - therefore, another one is probably due! I would point out that there have been many long periods in this century that resulted in either decreases, or no net increases, for the DJI. For example, there have been 37 years in this century when the DJI sold below a level reached 15 or more years earlier. The market was lower in 1982 than in 1966, lower in 1974 than 1959 and lower in 1949 than in 1929. Further, there have been several instances where the DJI has sold at the same level as a prior level anywhere from 15 to 25 years earlier. Examples of these are 1964 and 1982, 1959 and 1974, 1925 and 1949. These statistics clearly highlight that a blind "Buy 'em" at any time can be very dangerous to your health for many, many years before you head into the black. This blind devotion to "I'm in this for the long term" not only has some pitfalls, but the market may be due for an upsetting period that breaks the back of such rampant complacency. Ralph Bloch Senior Vice President December 16, 1999

To: yard_man who wrote (81105)	12/25/1999 11:55:00 AM
From: re3	Respond to of 86076

don't you blokes have pressies to open <g> hang on to your hats, i sense our pal mikey b will have some good suggestions for moves in the next few trading days... it could be 'some' ride the next two weeks, a memorable time in the equities mkt either way !

To: yard_man who wrote (81105)	12/25/1999 12:34:00 PM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 86076

< Think of the bank derivative contracts here > I know... think of the current account deficit... think of the mind blowing valuations...think of the fix...the racket....think of how we got to this point...