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Technology Stocks : RealNetworks (NASDAQ:RNWK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goodboy who wrote (4720)	12/25/1999 2:11:00 PM
From: Scott C. Lemon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5843

Hello Goodboy, It's funny ... I've been watching Real for quite some time (and holding!) and have wondering when/if their attitude was going to catch up with them. Everytime I have thought it would, they have continued to more forward and beat the odds. But I have to agree that I'm not sure what direction they are heading now ... and I'm waiting for that next surprise ... > Real is fighting a losing battle. They are fighting a business > model and revenue model that will not survive this year. I would say that it's going to be interesting, however I'm not sure that they will not survive the year. Things take a while to "spin down" and they are going to be moving in numerous directions ... I hope that they realize that decentralization, infrastructure, and easier end-user tools are key. I just bought another video capture product (the Studio MP10 from Pinnacle Systems) to test and evaluate ... it comes with "RealProducer for Web enabling your videos" ... I hope that I see a user interface that is really easy to use. > The bad news is that their strategy to make up for their lost > licencing revenue is to get into the content biz, which has pissed > off many of their partners. I'm not sure about getting into content, but they have to do a better job at "enabling" content ... and enabling people to find content. The bandwidth wars are on their side, but enabling people to use that bandwidth and find content that uses that bandwidth ... It's too bad they were too cocky to deal with Novell when they should have ... the tides are turning, and Novell is well on their way to demonstrating what real infrastructure is all about. Although they spent years trying to partner with Real, all they got were "stiff arms" ... so Novell went to Apple and QuickTime ... > They can't win either way. Real's dominant position is going to > change. THe company is going to have to radically alter how they > due biz. Problem is that I have been unable to figure out how they > can due it without hurting their revs and sending the stock down to > where it is currently heading. This is where it get's tricky ... they have played some interesting cards, and pick some interesting partners ... but I agree that I'm looking for what the next move will be ... > Stock is down 50 points from the high and only the first few shots > in the battle have been fired. Most of them will be fired at Real. Yep ... people are scared ... they seem to be afraid of getting stuck with a "bad" Internet stock. But these types of swings have become the norm for Real ... most of the investors just don't understand the streaming media market, and what is coming over the horizon. > I hope they have a great defensive strategy. I hope they have a great offensive strategy ... now is no time to get defensive and try to "dig in" ... the successes of the Internet are won by innovation and thinking outside the box! Defense rarely puts points on the board! > I expect GMV to be sued next, but I don't think Real will win that > one. Analysts will have to downgrade the stock when they realize > what is happening. Watch out if that happens. These are going to be some interesting times ... copyright and the Digital Millenium act are going to be tested ... what is it that GMV did? Scott C. Lemon