Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (88530)	12/25/1999 3:20:00 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I'm confused aren't you in a hedge fund? One of the financial advantages of being in a hedge fund is being able to go both ways. And I'm not talking about sexual innuendos here. If your in a hedge fund that doesn't short stocks also, then your not in a hedge fund. Maybe you should ask your hedge fund what they're shorting, or hedging. Do you know what a great short/hedge has been this year? The dollar vs the Yen. The dollar longs have been crushed, while the dollar shorts have made $billions.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (88530)	12/27/1999 11:59:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 164684

True . . . but you have to take what is posted on the SI and other public bbs as primed with exaggeration and B.S. anyway. Short sellers (even the "professional" hedge fund operators) have, for the most part, been frustrated by the stupendous amount of money that has continued to flow into the Internet sector. It may be that the shorts prove to be right over time - that these stocks are valued much higher than reality will eventually dictate. But most mega trend bubbles don't burst until the underlying bubble of growth subsides. Although it may be totally rational to argue (even Jeff Bezos makes this point clear), that Internet commerce will be a small subset of overall commerce and that growth rates will continue to decline, it will remain a fact that growth rates for ecommerce will stay in the triple digits for at least another year. Stock valuations are built upon expectations. Bubbles are examples of extreme expectations and often occur because all factors attributed to the mature business model have not yet been encountered and rationalized into the stock price. During the early adopter and growth phase of new markets, (even in this age of "new economy think" business cycles still apply), people tend to focus on growth to the exclusion of competitive factors that latter tame expectations for end of game potentials. Discussions of where Amazon.com (Amazongonenutty.com) and other darling Internet plays will go tomorrow or next month have much less to do with eventual sales, margins and profits than they do with immediate growth of the investment pool and company sales. The "investment pool" is experiencing continued growth as a logical outcome of increased on-line brokerage activity, increased Internet usage and increased investment cash flows. Around February of last year I predicted that Amazon would move down to around 80 during the summer (40 split adjusted) but would latter rally to new highs by the first quarter of 2000. Amazon has already made a new high, however briefly, and should go on to at least test that level again early next year. Bezos has continued to amaze most observers and shorts as well as longs should respect his (minions) ability to expand their grand vision and keep one step ahead of the curve. Maybe that "one step ahead" will prove to be one step ahead of the bubble or one step ahead of a grand and eventually profitable market. Some of us have concerns about competitive pressures and the basic effects of the Internet on margins and profitability. Yes, growth is phenomenal but if you read between the lines you see it has already begun to decline considerably and the market has already gotten fiercely competitive. IMO, these stocks are chiefly momentum plays with Internet ecommerce, investment cash-flows and on-line brokerage growth being the fuels. Be careful if (when) those start to flicker.