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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (2243)	12/26/1999 10:12:00 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

>>on how a largely Internet-based economy << Dale -- no offense -- but that phrase makes me laugh. There will be no such thing. The economy is based on the production of real goods and services which can only be negotiated over the internet. There will not be a largely Internet-based economy any more than there has been --- a largely automotive-based economy or -- a largely phone based economy etc. It is not new -- it is simply different. I have purchased a few things over the internet -- probably more than a lot of folks, but the internet itself has not changed the type of goods I am looking for or accelerated my purchases in any way. Has the internet changed "what" you buy or "how much" you buy (aside from you making more trading the stocks) or has the internet simply provided another means? Here are two things that crack me up -- 1) who's supposedly the biggest success on the internet: Ho ho ho a bookseller (nevermind that they haven't made a profit yet). Where are the dot.coms spending ever-increasing amounts of cash to advertise: another medium that was supposed to be transforming in its day -- television (television has been transforming, I'll admit this -- not always for the better). You may say "it is early." I agree that it is, but the internet is not a revolutionary technology. Phones and electricity were much more revolutionary. The internet just brings together a number of technologies which have been around for years in a new way. I see it supplanting many of the transactions that used to take place by mail, but not all of them. TV will be around and be distinct from the internet for at least 15 - 20 years more, IMO. Most purchases will continue to take place in the fashion they always have -- the internet simply provides a convenient method for buyer and seller to hook-up. There is no reason to expect this to "better" our economic prospects in any other way than to widen markets a little. Markets are already largely global for many products. I guess all I can say to the folks who think this will usher in some new economic age is one big <YAWN> >>Knowing how wedded most economists and stock market analysts are to old models<< Simply wrong -- most analysts and economists have had to throw out traditional methods for looking at the economy in order to keep their jobs during this period. I'm not a conspiracy nut, but the economists and analysts alike have every financial incentive to ignore truth in preference to market paper and they do it readily ...

To: Dale Baker who wrote (2243)	12/26/1999 3:01:00 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

Dale Knowing how wedded most economists and stock market analysts are to old models, I really don't think they have a clue what will happen or what to do about it now or later. I'm afraid that the term model gets loosly thrown around without enough description of what is being refered to. The old financial model of providing a return to shareholders is independant of the business. As we speak the jury is out as to who will win or loose and of the winners how they will be vulnerable to future change and attack by newcommers. A indisputable fact is each and every business, IPO, spin etc will ultimately be valued in this way....some sooner than others Without a doubt the internet is a significant impact. But its a bit naive to assume who the winners will be (consumers, businesses who utilize the "cost benifits", infrastructure providers or internut centric businesses). In the long view, I think the closest analogy is with the railroads of yesteryear in that they revolutionalized transportation of people and goods, much the way the internet is doing with information. We can draw analogies between these industries, however a difference with the internet is the speed of change, amount of capital being thrown into these businesses and low barriers to entry. I for one am not a buy and hold investor of internet centric businesses, simply because I view it as too risky.......despite that view, I do/have invested in them both long and short from a event driven or based on my perspective of their near term outlook. Mad2