To: Mike Perras who wrote (30713 ) 12/27/1999 11:08:00 PM From: Brian Malloy Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 77400
Mike, It is hard to pay up for some of these stocks. However, I do think CSCO deserves to be a core holding for those who believe the Inet is real and the build out and enhancement will continue. I think it almost goes without saying that even analysts/money managers that "disrespect" technology and consider all this a bubble seem to agree that CSCO even if grudgingly can be purchased. A split, I'm sure they will announce and do one next year. Quite frankly, the stock is above the normal zone for a stock split. They will not do a 3:2 from these levels. If we go much higher, say $120 or above then a 3:1 may enter the equation. If not, then a 2:1 Your main question though is at what price to buy? We could get a pull back. We should all expect a pull back at some point, probably between now and April, but I don't know if anyone can pinpoint it. CSCO could run up another 20% then pull back 10% in which case you are buying even higher or it could do the opposite and you could get it lower or any other scenario you can come up with. The key thing for me with CSCO is where do I expect it to be say 3, 5, or even 10 years hence? If you believe much higher, then buying CSCO within +/- 10%, 20% or even more of the current price is of little significance in the long term. Of course we all strive to get the "best price". At a minimum, this week I would consider putting at least 1/3 of the capital that you want to invest in CSCO to work. If on January 3rd you're watching CNBC and the market is tanking then you can take your time and pick a lower entry point for the rest of your funds. On the other hand if the market jumps out of the starting block and CNBC is saying millenium melt-up, unprecedented volume is being shown and money flows are at or near record highs then you know to buy, don't wait. The bottom line, be aware than an unprecedented amount of cash is sitting in Money Funds due to Y2K worries. As great as the run from October to now has been, wise investors realize that for each dollar that has come into the market and fueled the advance, two went into Money Market Funds, 401K money will be unleashed in January, bonuses across all industries are at/near record levels by all appearances. In short, if the market sells off on 3 Jan it will not stay down too long. Draw your own conclusions regarding what could happen. Lastly, take the time to read the article below. I think you will like what the author finds regarding CSCO as an investment.'Best' Stocks For 2000 Just Part of Story By Fred Barbash Sunday, December 26, 1999; Page H01 washingtonpost.com Regards,