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To: Bill on the Hill who wrote (42)	12/27/1999 1:06:00 PM
From: Bill on the Hill	Respond to of 155

For David To: George Burdell (17327 ) From: Rande Is Monday, Dec 27 1999 11:48AM ET Reply # of 17340 To all. . . . . . . . . . . Don't be fooled! . . . . . . . . . . This is mostly for the benefit of those that are less experienced. . . CMGI was an excellent example of MM shake today. . . Imagine you are a Market Maker. . . your job is to play against the market, [which adds liquidity]. You know that some stocks like YHOO or CMGI or DCLK are just going to keep on outperforming the market throughout 2000. . . so every now and then you work the stock down as fast and as far as you can until it gets hit with heavy volume. . . then you cover and buy low into the panic. . . then run the stock back up before the small investors can even figure out what is going on. . . and if they do and they buy back in. . . you simply do it again and again until the stock will rise and fall with less and and less volume. . . . now you are back in the drivers seat. Now here is where it gets ugly. . . . .just prior to the end of the year. . . when most investors are concerned primarily with getting to the next year to postpone capital gains taxes. . . .you, as the market maker, shake the tree exceptionally hard. . . . anyone trying to hold their profits until the end of the year. . then get nervous . . .and you shake harder. . .until they finally give up and sell . . . . this is what we are seeing today on stocks like CMGI, ICGE, VERT, etc. etc. . . Then, at some pre-set low price. . . the brokerages call all their best customers and say. . . "if I can get you into ICGE at 140 and CMGI at 210, can I count on you for 50k of each?" . . "I have it on good authority that there will be news, a split and an upgrade" . . ."what do you say? . . .yes? great!" So now the market makers are given a target [remember they work for the brokerages]. . . where they will be covering and going short. Are they going to tell you? Of course not. . . that would be like announcing to the defense that you are going to run a fake punt. So this very heavy buying suddenly hits the stock at the pre-set low price, forcing it up faster than the individual investor can "catch" it. And off the stock goes. . . back to the races. . . you thought you were smart selling at 160, when it went to 150 the next day. . . but it just opened at 175 and is now selling at 192. . .are you going to buy back your shares 32 points higher? Too late. . .it is at 205 and has just announced a 2-for-1 . . and received a big upgrade to 350 by that same brokerage house that bought that low so heavily. . . .and suddenly your stock is at 260. . . .+100 from where you sold. . . And THAT, my friends. . .is how the markets really work. . .especially with the high-fliers. If you are going to get profits by trading. . . you must be extremely vigilant and aggressive. . . never willing to give up your profits. . . you bank your profits often. . . and scalp whenever possible. . . .either that or you lie in wait with a terrific position, until it is entered into the popularity contest. .. . .or you stick your money into a long port and watch passively. If you casually daytrade or swing trade. . .you will lose everytime. . you cannot do those casually. . . but must be ferocious in your trading. If you take positions and wait for favor. . . be sure to SELL into the strength. . . and repeat your process. . . if you decide to become a long-term investor in your position trades. . .you will lose by losing patience and selling early. And if you decide to hold a portfolio of great companies long. . . then leave them alone. . . .resist the temptation to trade them. Now we have developed a "hybrid" trading style here on the HOME thread, where we do some of each. . . on the very same stock. . . .but if you are doing this. . . be sure it is never on more than just a few stocks at a time. . . or you will go into overload! Hold your longs long. Set strict targets on your positions. And if you are swing trading or daytrading. . . don't go for the gold. . . .scalp! Scalp all the way up . . .and if you have a margin account that allows short-selling. . . then scalp all the way back down. NEVER turn a daytrade into a position trade. And never turn a position trade into a long-termer. Choose your long-termers carefully. . . and etch your position targets in stone. Plan your trade then trade your plan. The point is to be a winner. . . and never a sucker. Remember. . . The Market Makers, the brokerages, the large size investors and the insiders ALL have many advantages over the individual investors. So we must have more skill, discipline and patience. Rande Is

To: Bill on the Hill who wrote (42)	12/27/1999 1:11:00 PM
From: Bill on the Hill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 155

Satellite radio. SOURCE: Wall Street Transcript The Wall Street Transcript Publishes Radio Stocks Report in Broadcasting Issue NEW YORK, Dec. 7 /PRNewswire/ -- Seven leading analysts and five Broadcasting CEOs examine the Broadcasting sector in the latest issue of The Wall Street Transcript (212-952-7433) or twst.com. In a vital review of this sector for investors and industry professionals, this valuable 70-page report features: 1) Radio Stocks -- In an in-depth Analyst Roundtable (7,600 words), Frank Bodenchak of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, P. Gordon Hodge of Thomas Weisel and James M. Marsh, Jr., of Prudential Securities examine the Spanish-language market, satellite radio prospects, out-of-home media and advertising, management quality, advertising rates, market share gains, Internet/radio competition, consolidation, IPO outlook, the outlook for the sector and specific stock recommendations. Hodges declares, ''An area that we believe has long-term growth potential is the Spanish language format, where there are strong demographic trends driving increased listenership as the Hispanic population in the U.S. grows from about 11% to 25% of the U.S. population over the next 50 years. There are other targeted formats that seem to do quite well. AMFM (NYSE: AFM - news) has been rolling out a 'jammin' oldies' format, which seems to have been a success in some markets. There are other broadcasters out there that are very adept at addressing certain niches that have been very successful, like Radio One (Nasdaq: ROIA - news) in the urban format.'' Radio specifically targeting more groups, Bodenchak states, ''is more likely through CD Radio (Nasdaq: CDRD - news), where we have less constrained capacity on the number of stations in the market. In a radio market where you have 12 to 25 strong viable signals, operators are far more likely to use that valuable spectrum to target larger audiences, where a targeted demographic represents a significant percentage of the population.'' Hodge forecasts, ''I don't see satellite radio being that big an issue for local radio. Some smart companies are hedged. Clear Channel actually invested $75 million or so in XM Satellite (Nasdaq: XMSR - news), which essentially means they are hedged to some extent, so they may benefit either way.'' Content and reach are required to drive Internet traffic, Bodenchak states, ''You're seeing radio companies use their ability to drive traffic toward the Web and drive those links. Recently, MSDW served as a liaison between Entercom (NYSE: ETM - news) -- the fourth largest radio company and a stock that had been one of our top picks this summer -- and Tickets.com (Nasdaq: TIXX - news), which we brought public last month. Cox Enterprises, with Cox Radio (NYSE: CXR - news) and MP3 (Nasdaq: MPPP - news), has made a similar investment. CBS (NYSE: CBS - news) has now made over 15 Web investments -- too numerous to detail. So I think the ability to merge content with the ability to generate traffic is going to wed Internet and radio somewhat.'' The panel goes on to offer recommendations about which sector stocks are most likely to reward investors. Hodge explains, ''We're focusing on what we think are some of the faster growing companies and some of the highest quality management teams. We're recommending Infinity Broadcasting, Clear Channel Communications, Citadel Communications (Nasdaq: CITC - news) and Hispanic Broadcasting (Nasdaq: HBCCA - news). Our focus is on these companies' growth rates and where they trade relative to those growth rates.'' For a free interview excerpt in which Bodenchak explains why he names Cumulus Media (Nasdaq: CMLS - news) a 'top pick' see archive.twst.com. If an investor can only buy one stock in this group, Hodge says, ''I would pick Infinity right now. The reason is that I think the Outdoor Systems (NYSE: OSI - news) acquisition, which should close in the next week or two, is going to prove to be a very, very bright move on Infinity's part. I think Outdoor Systems' business is poised to grow rapidly next year. It could even outpace the growth of radio next year, which I think would be unexpected by the market, and therefore present a very pleasant surprise for shareholders.'' This 70-page Broadcasting Issue also includes: 2) Broadcasting Industry -- In an in-depth Analyst Roundtable (21,000 words), James Boyle of First Union Securities, Christopher Ensley of Lazard Freres, Niraj Gupta of Schroder & Company and Victor B. Miller IV of Bear Stearns examine the transition from analog to digital, multipurposing content, consolidation, new TV duopoly rules, advertising revenues, radio, billboards, Internet advertising, valuations, the outlook for the sector and specific stock recommendations. For a free interview excerpt in which Boyle explains why he has a $97 price target for Clear Channel Communications see archive.twst.com For a free interview excerpt in which Miller explains why he likes Barry Diller's vision see archive.twst.com 3) The TWST confidential Off-The-Record survey of management performance at 15 Broadcasting firms asked market insiders about the ability of management teams to create shareholder value. In a sector where many management teams are praised for their vision, some CEOs receive top marks for their efforts. Firms reviewed in Off-The-Record include: CBS, Citadel Communications, Clear Channel Communications, Cox Radio, Cumulus Media, Emmis Communications, Hispanic Broadcasting Corp., Infinity Broadcasting, News Corp., Paxson, Saga Communications, Tribune Company, Univision Communications, Disney and Westwood One. 4) Five extensive (average 2,500 words) CEO Interviews with top management from the following sector firms discussing their future plans and outlook for their firm and the Broadcasting sector: CanWest Global Communications, Chyron, Granite Broadcasting, Hispanic Broadcasting and Sinclair Broadcast Group. To obtain a copy of this insightful 70-page report, see twst.com or call 212-952-7433. This special section is also included in the CONSUMER Sector of TWST Online at twst.com The Wall Street Transcript is a premier weekly investment publication interviewing market professionals for serious investors for over 35 years. Available at twst.com, TWST Online provides free interview excerpts. For highlights, recent recommendations by analysts and money managers and business news, visit twst.com. Do a free search of the extensive TWST Archives at archive.twst.com. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewee nor does it make stock recommendations. SOURCE: Wall Street Transcript -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- More Quotes and News: AMFM INC (NYSE:AFM - news) CBS Corp (NYSE:CBS - news) Citadel Communications Corp (NasdaqNM:CITC - news) Cox Radio Inc (NYSE:CXR - news) Cumulus Media Inc (NasdaqNM:CMLS - news) Entercom Communications Corp (NYSE:ETM - news) Hispanic Broadcasting Corp (NasdaqNM:HBCCA - news) MP3.com Inc (NasdaqNM:MPPP - news) Outdoor Systems Inc (NYSE:OSI - news) Radio One Inc (NasdaqNM:ROIA - news) Sirius Satellite Radio Inc (NasdaqNM:CDRD - news) Tickets.com Inc (NasdaqNM:TIXX - news) XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc (NasdaqNM:XMSR - news)