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Biotech / Medical : ARIAD Pharmaceuticals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (781)	12/27/1999 1:49:00 PM
From: RWReeves	Respond to of 4474

RE: OT Inutz shorting: Lots of i-nut issues coming out of lockup post IPO in Jan-July. Should make a pretty decent waterfall as insiders rush to actually try and buy something with their inflated shares (could have shorted against the box- not many seem to however, becuz of the margin reqt. Maybe a home equity loan based on restricted stock to put up the margin to short the restricted stock. Sick minds, I know. Targets are in sight, Sir, preparing to fire.* Now ARIA, I know you love those ARIAW like some people love swiss francs, but they seem too expensive to me at present unless you know that the volatility will play out a certain way. For ARIA to go to 10, that's a 400-500% increase in current market's valuation. Assuming no time premium on the warrants (i.e this happens toward year end, not right away) you got what, 2 bucks a share in the money or a 600% increase. OTOH come next December, should ARIA elect not to extend them, then you have a 100% loss. I guess the betting is that ARIA will keep extending them until (someday) they are exercised and they get a "free" cash infusion (well, it costs dilution. Kind of cool that they were 3 cents a warrant in early December and now they are 34 cents. Not a bad deal. As I said before, I do hope you get your wish on the ARIAW and live a long happy life on Maui in your new mansion. RWR