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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (36053)	12/27/1999 4:01:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

heinz The bullishness and complacency are overwhelming. Even those expecting a correction soon (Elaine Gazarelli) say it will be no big deal --maybe 10% for the NAZ. My take still is that a bear will begin this spring after a decent bounce in January by small caps and value stocks generally. I look for the NAZ to drop at least 30% and the other averages about half that before things turn around. I agree with Steve Roach that we will see substantial further Fed tightening once Y2K is history. Importantly I see it lasting 4-6 months -- not the 1-2 months typical of recent corrections. Not particularly severe by historic bear market standards but still devastating for this generation of ultra-spoiled investors. After this bear ends, I see a huge bull market in small caps, commodity, and value stocks. The NAZ, by contrast, may be lucky to get back to its old highs.