Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (57013)	12/27/1999 8:19:00 PM
From: Jenne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

We expect active trading once again today (Tuesday), as players continue to adjust year-end portfolios in time to assure settlement by this Friday. Transactions made today will be the last that can settled by the end of the year. The action will likely be volatile, with an overall bias to the upside. That is how things ended on Monday. The Dow finished modestly lower, after posting solid gains throughout most of the session and the Nasdaq managed another record close, after struggling for most of the day. Optimistic investors kept committing funds to the big-cap momentum technology issues. Also, retail issues rose on expectations that the holiday shopping season will turn out to be a good one. Further, a 26 cent rise in February crude helped the oil service stocks to turn in a respectable performance. Computer makers had a negative session and initial gains by financial stocks ultimately fell to profit-taking. Market breadth was weak. NYSE losers finished ahead of winners 18 to 13. On the Nasdaq, decliners prevailed 24 to 18. Bonds registered moderate upside, with little economic news to concern players. The 30-year Treasury added 6/32, to yield 6.467 percent. It appears that equity investors may be content to leave their money in the market until next week, when the new tax year begins. That should minimize any market downside through Friday. Beginning tomorrow, volumes are expected to lighten. With late week trades not settling until next year and with Y2K still an unknown factor, investors may simply avoid complications and take a seat on the sidelines. Expect technology stocks to continue being among the more popular issues. New cash is likely to counter profit-taking and sustain the market early in the new year. Initial year 2000 investments will probably be more broadly-based than those dominating trade (technology) this month. Six month movements by the three major market indexes are illustrated in Figures 1-3 below. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains in the middle of its recent trading channel and still has room to rise. The S&P 500 Index, however, has pushed through the upper boundary of its channel and must either fall back or establish a new channel. Market action this week will likely clarify the near-term S&P 500 outlook. The Nasdaq continues to run. Of the three indexes, the Nasdaq Composite is the most subject to correction. We do not anticipate any significant Nasdaq downside, however, through the end of the year and into early January. Chain-store sales data for the week ending December 25th will be released this morning. The Mitsubishi chain-store sales index, out at 9:00 am ET, is based on a representative sample of nine large retailers and measures sales on a weekly basis. The LJR Redbook survey, out at 10:30 am ET, tracks 15 retail stores every week to determine the changes in sales. The Redbook survey has a somewhat better track record for predicting chain store sales in the monthly retail sales report. November Existing Home Sales will be reported at 10:00 am ET this morning. As the name implies, this release provides a measure of the sales of existing home. The report is considered a decent indicator of activity in the housing sector. Housing starts are reported earlier each month, but starts are a supply rather than a demand-side indicator. Existing home sales precede the other key demand-side indicator - new home sales - thus boosting the visibility of the existing sales report. Home sales are highly dependent on mortgage rates and will tend to react with a few months lag to changes in rates. The survey sample for existing homes is larger than that for new homes, making the existing homes report less susceptible to large revisions. The December Consumer Confidence report will also be out at 10 am ET. The Conference Board conducts a monthly survey of 5000 households to ascertain the level of consumer confidence. The report can occasionally be helpful in predicting sudden shifts in consumption patterns, though most small changes in the index are just noise. Only index changes of at least five points should be considered significant. The index consists of two subindexes. These are consumers' appraisal of current conditions and their expectations for the future. Expectations make up 60% of the total index, with current conditions accounting for the other 40%. The expectations index is typically seen as having better leading indicator qualities than the current conditions index. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators for November will be released at 10 am ET on Wednesday. stockwinners