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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry Liebman who wrote (475)	12/27/1999 9:05:00 PM
From: Jim Oravetz	Respond to of 52153

An interesting suggestion regarding the dearth of biotech IPO's vs internuts. I heard this segment on NPRadio today. Mentions INCY, (up 22% today). Seems like a series of stories are coming. Genetic Patents -- NPR's Richard Harris reports that scientists are laying claim to the human chromosome like prospectors to uncharted land. Earlier this month, scientists announced that they had deciphered the genetic code to Chromosome 22 but some have already filed patents on the genetic material. That could mean a big pay off if their patents wind up being the key to cure disease. (7:17) search.npr.org Requires: RealAudio:14.4, 28.8 or Windows Media: 28.8.

To: Larry Liebman who wrote (475)	12/27/1999 9:06:00 PM
From: Larry Liebman	Respond to of 52153

Re: Supply-Demand/Shares Outstanding HGSI 23 million shares outstanding AFFX 26 million CRA 26 million INCY 29 million MLNM 37 million BMY 1.98 billion

To: Larry Liebman who wrote (475)	12/27/1999 9:21:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

<part of what is behind the bio-rally is the relatively small supply of biotech stock> Yep... this has been mentioned before but very useful to bring it up again. You see what happened to NBIX when someone wanted a decent position! Well it's dinner time: "COME AND GET IT!" DAK

To: Larry Liebman who wrote (475)	12/28/1999 10:01:00 AM
From: WTDEC	Respond to of 52153

Larry, I agree that there is a big risk of selling too soon. Been there and done that! Many times >(. Up to the last 6-9 months, most bio investors had a long dry spell while the general market, especially tech stocks, bounded ahead. There is a natural tendency to want to lock up gains now that bios seem to have caught up with the market. Stated another way, after being out in the desert so long, drinking that cool cup of capital gains is almost irresistible. Your points about scarcity and market cap comparisons are excellent. Add to that pipeline starved pharmas in need of munching in 2000, the growing maturity of many bios and their development programs, etc. To me, barriers to entry are an enormous advantage to successful biotechs as compared to internet companies. Anyone with money can start a .com and competition is akin to a free-for-all. But drug development takes great skill, a long time and is protected (usually) by patents and trade secrets for a substantial period of time. Maybe bios will get rewarded more appropriately as compared to the .coms. IMO, we are at the beginning of a long cycle...3-5 years...of bio-boom. Certainly there will be declines, sometimes bone-jarring, but the stage seems to be set for a broad advance in drugs from biotechs and, consequently, stock price. Best regards, Walter