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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (2354)	12/28/1999 1:12:00 AM
From: Mad2	Respond to of 3543

Bobby, we are at the beginning of the end. Admitedly the end may take a while (1-2 years) to play out. Ran across a stock being recomended as a canidate for the January bounce (no opinion), however its interesting in that it's a dot com company (FASH), has 5.75/share in cash and is going for 4 and a half bucks a share........no debit. What does that tell you about the intrinsic enterprise value assigned to this gem? Dot coms are dying, in 3-6 months or sooner it'll be a liability to be a pure dot com (unless its YAHOO or AOL) play as everyone will have realized that just having a web site and a concept is not a guarantee for sucess...but its not over as we have the hype, hope and blather of the next rotation.....B2B, which everyone knows WILL BE BIGGER than the B2C. What will be bigger, I'm not sure, the hype, the hope or the stock prices....possibly the losses The upcomming year will bring secondary offerings that dissapoint, consoladations to salvage shareholder value (rather than create), revenue dissapointments and possibly the failure, crash or cancelation of a significant IPO.(this could be a biggie) As it unfolds these events will take some air out of the ballon.......that coupled with the slowing of the economy, rising rates and less liquidity will lead to dissapointing year for the buy and hold its going to be another great year Time will tell Mad2

To: bobby beara who wrote (2354)	12/28/1999 8:40:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 3543

Bobby, in fact it's an extremely powerful combination: rampant credit growth coupled with an open-ended fantasy (the internet)...it makes for incredible stock market valuations. how long will the boom last? it has already lasted quite a while...imo, now that every stock remotely connected to the internet is valued for the hereafter, a shakeout of sorts can not be too far off. at some point investors will have to ask themselves who can deliver and who can't...you can only have fantasy valuations while reality is kept firmly at bay. however, it will intrude at some point... hb