To: Edwin S. Fujinaka who wrote (2871 ) 12/27/1999 11:30:00 PM From: Edwin S. Fujinaka Respond to of 6018
Some early predictions for the new year from Nikkei Net along with some commentary on the new Nasdaq: Tuesday, December 28, 1999 Stock Market Outlook: Bullish In Next Year TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Japanese stock market will be extremely bullish in the new year, marking the second year of a full-scale recovery, forecasts New Japan Securities Co. strategist Yuji Nakamura. Technology stocks and other favorites from this year will continue to rise. After the corporate earnings season in May, materials companies, which to date have been oversold, will be bought due to investors appreciating the effects of their restructuring. The Nikkei Stock Average will top 20,000 in January or early February, and after some rough patches, will rise to the range of 24,000 to 25,000 around October. Possible sources of volatility include: the foreign exchange market, where the dollar may fall below 100 yen; and U.S. stocks, which could suffer a correction in mid-February through early March, when the Federal Reserve Board may tighten monetary policy in its fight against inflation. On the downside domestically, Japan's economic recovery is still dependent on government policies. Delays in, for example, the introduction of a 10 million yen cap on deposit protection could hinder the economic recovery. Information and communication issues, such as technology- and Internet-related stocks, will lead the market as they have done for most of this year. The Mothers market and a planned NASDAQ Japan will provide an opportunity for listing outstanding stocks from venture companies and giving a boost to the entire market by sparking the interest of individual investors. Softbank Corp. (9984) and Jafco Co. (8595) will trade strongly. Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. (6752) and Hitachi Ltd. (6501) should make a comeback. After April, sectoral realignments should help DDI Corp. (9433) and Industrial Bank of Japan (8302). (The Nikkei Financial Daily Tuesday edition) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Copyright 1999 Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Inc., all rights reserved. Monday, December 27, 1999 OPINION: Industry Sees NASDAQ As Modern Commodore Perry TOKYO (Nikkei)--Six months have passed since the idea of establishing a new stock exchange in Japan was first mooted. At the time, NASDAQ's proposed exchange was likened to one of Commodore Perry's Black Ships in terms of its potential market-opening effect. NASDAQ has since signed a far-reaching agreement with the Osaka Securities Exchange to set up a new exchange in Japan. Negotiations took six months because of the differing interests of the three parties involved, NASDAQ, Softbank Corp. (9984) and Osaka Securities Exchange. The U.S. National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) wants to attract Japanese investors to NASDAQ. Softbank sees the new market as the core facility for its IPOs business. The Osaka Stock Exchange wants to add new financial services to reinforce its crumbling market base. Those in the Japan securities circle compare NASDAQ to a Black Ship because it has raised questions about the character of Japanese stock markets. In Japan, a stock exchange is generally regarded as being like a government-run public body. The idea of creating a second securities dealers' association to oversee a management company set up to pursue profit caught the Japanese off guard. The securities industry is undergoing dynamic changes brought about by the IT revolution and globalization. Private markets in the U.S., where securities firms provide facilities for trading on the Internet, are competing through low trading commissions and investor convenience. The changes are also revolutionizing how Japanese exchanges do business, including listing standards and the principle of a membership organization that guarantees settlements. NASDAQ Japan will introduce competition to both the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the OTC market. NASDAQ Japan, a replica of the U.S. NASDAQ, the world's most advanced stock market, should build an exchange which conforms to U.S. rules for listing, disclosure and trading. If NASDAQ Japan lives up to its ideal of being a fully regulated, transparent and open market, it will win investor trust. The establishment of a truly global-standard stock exchange in Japan has far reaching implications. It will expand options for both businesses and investors, while at the same time intensifying competition among markets. Market participants will also no longer be content with the half-hearted attempts at market reform typical in Japan. (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Saturday morning edition) Copyright 1999 Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Inc., all rights reserved.