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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (9433)	12/28/1999 1:08:00 AM
From: peter michaelson	Respond to of 78523

The 'anti-hype' now is that the Berkshire run is over because: Mr. Buffet is old... Only huge acquisitions make any difference now, and all candidates are over-valued... By the time they're not over-valued, Buffet will be at least 75.... etc. peter

To: James Clarke who wrote (9433)	12/28/1999 6:36:00 AM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78523

James: The fact that berkshire is being ignored by investors should be no surprise, most stocks are trading down unless you own a select group of tech & or internet stocks. The fact that the averages are being held up by a few stocks is going to be a problem. The fact that bond yields are heading up is also going to be a problem. Wallstreet has demonstrated an amazing capacity to suck up capital faster than it can be fed into the market. ie the broad market is down. In spite of Greenspans efforts to increase liquidity flows to the market through daily coupon passes, it will not be enough. He will have to scale back after the new year and even then, I dont believe that will stop the 30yr bond from hitting 8%. I will wait until the broad market breaks down b4 buying into berkshire. I have a feeling, it and most other things will get much much cheaper.

To: James Clarke who wrote (9433)	12/29/1999 1:16:00 AM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78523

James, IMHO there are a few things holding back BRK. One is that General Re is having a legitimately bad year and almost all the PC and Reinsurance stocks are taking a beating. Second is that both the bond and equity portfolio are nowhere this year. Third is that interest rates have moved from 5.06% to 6.45% since late last year. Fourth is that most of the articles I've seen don't understand how great Geico is doing because they are focusing on GAAP earnings instead of the growth of policies in force. Expect Warren to talk about this in the Annual Report. Fifth is that I think some in the media are enjoying tearing him down a notch. (jealousy) Sixth is that there are a lot of complete idiots out there that think if you buy a stock at 75x earnings and it goes to 100x earnings despite slowing growth you are a genius and if you didn't you are an idiot. I can't believe that Warren is taking heat for avoiding technology. Seventh is tax selling. General Re's problems are most likely cyclical and could even partly reflect more conservative reserving. Interest rates are up so that is legitimate. The rest is nonsense. I still think it's a value at this price. Maybe not a screaming value but better than most. Wayne