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Technology Stocks : Gemstar Intl (GMST) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (1230)	12/28/1999 10:28:00 AM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6516

According to Yahoo, GMST has an expected growth rate through 3/2000 of 25.5%. and through 3/2001 of 32.9%. The First Call consensus of average long term growth is 36.2% These figures probably aren't really very useful since so much of the potential of GMST depends on an adoption life cycle that is still murky. The "experts" that make these growth estimates may be less likely to have insight into this than many here on SI. This would be especially true if they are using the standard metrics in their forecast. These to a large extent depend on the future being a linear projection of the past. If we are right about the position of GMST in the tech adoption cycle, the future will be logarithmic, not linear. I agree that it should be included in the index, but the tornado in this case is a matter of expectations, not reality. No matter what the vote, GMST at this time doesn't qualify as a gorilla, at least by the G. Moore standards that we both follow. That makes it more risky than some others,but with GMST the path to gorilla status seems more clear than usual, so hopefully it's worth taking a position this early.