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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Linder who wrote (7644)	12/28/1999 10:13:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Kevin, The problem, as I see it, is a matter of proportions. Let's assume Morgan's analysis is correct and that the drive business is worth $10 a share. That's roughly $2B. Compare this to the $12B that the Veritas stake is worth (before taxes) and the sub $1B that Sandisk and Gadzoox are worth together. Dragon may be an ace in the hole, but the earlier offering that was scrapped would have put a value on the entire company well below $1B and SEG's stake in that would be practically meaningless. The value of IMG and the other parts of Seagate software may too hold promise but it's hard to put a value on promise. I personally believe that VRTS is overvalued and maybe overvalued by a factor of 2. If you cut $4 to $6 billion off the entire value for that then the disk drive business has to double or triple to keep the total the same. I haven't sold any shares yet but I am questioning this on a daily basis. If the drive business would show some life then I may hold longer but I'm very nervous. I would love to see an announcement of a good quarter like Maxtor did. If this occurred and rallied the stock then I would see no choice but to cut back my holdings in part or in whole.