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To: long-gone who wrote (46351)	12/28/1999 10:02:00 AM
From: lorne	Respond to of 116984

OT. The Contrarian's View Y2K: WHAT I EXPECT " There has been some speculation that the public may panic at the last minute, in the final week of December. Ain't gonna happen, in my opinion. The public is going to hit the Y2K wall fully asleep, thanks to truly abominable reporting by the mainstream media." " I am most worried about petroleum refineries; I think it's likely at least 10% of them will shut down, maybe up to a quarter of them. A 6% drop in (imported) oil triggered the 1970s energy crisis, which the government aggravated with its price-fixing." " By late January, Y2K will have introduced so much uncertainty into the system that interest rates (particularly on corporate paper) will soar; fears that almost anybody can unpredictably go out of business will be realized as a few Fortune 500 companies go bankrupt or suffer "quickie" mergers. Banks will become nervous about the quality of their loan portfolios. People will spend a lot of time trying to straighten out messed-up bills they've gotten.... and won't pay them until they're right. Corporate cash flows will be squeezed. " " Could I be wrong about all of this? I sure hope so! I kind of like life the way it is. Only a masochist would wish for a depression. I'll gladly trade having Alan Greenspan keeping the stock-market bubble inflated for another year or two (and be wrong for even longer about the impending crash of stocks) for a no-impact outcome to Y2K. If Y2K should, against all my expectations, turn out to be a non-event, you'll see me leading the cheering squad. " Full story >>> fiendbear.com