To: BillyG who wrote (48039 ) 12/28/1999 3:08:00 PM From: John Rieman Respond to of 50808
The year of CD-RW Drives..................................pcworld.com 2000: Year of CD-RW Drives While rewritable DVD vendors battle, PCs will gain "dual optical" drive combos. by David Essex, special to PC World December 27, 1999, 7:00 a.m. PT 2000 is shaping up to be another mixed year for optical drives as a lingering war over rewritability holds back DVD's potential, lengthening the life of CD-ROM and its rewritable sibling, CD-RW. But consumers will benefit from lower prices and the wider availability of CD-RW and DVD-ROM, according to industry observers. Rewriting DVD History A read-only DVD's standard capacity of 4.7GB is clearly superior to the 650MB of a CD-ROM, making DVD-ROM an increasingly popular option, especially on high-end PCs. But two incompatible versions of rewritable DVD, DVD-RAM and DVD+RW, are in an ongoing competition. Last month, DVD-RAM leapfrogged DVD+RW's 3GB capacity with Hitachi's announcement of a 4.7GB drive it says will ship by January. Other DVD-RAM vendors such as Panasonic and Toshiba are expected to sell 4.7GB DVD-RAMs in early 2000, with 4.7GB DVD+RW likely to come much later. "You will see, finally, the vendors of that club coming out with 4.7GB drives," predicts Jim Porter, president of the market-research firm DISK/TREND. "Frankly, DVD+RW's been mostly a paper tiger. It's been late, and there's been very little hardware." But 4.7GB DVD-RAM will be too pricey for all but high-end home PCs and corporate systems. "The price points are still very high, which won't give it mass-market acceptance," says Mary Craig, principal analyst at Dataquest. CD-RW sales will continue to outstrip rewritable DVDs by at least 3 to 1 through 2002, according to DISK/TREND. Steady Speed for CD-ROM On the read-only side, CD-ROMs will hold sway in the near future. But drive makers won't bother adding more numbers to the notorious "X" speeds of CD-ROMs, which now top out around 50X. And as prices slowly drop, DVD-ROMs will soon be affordable alternatives to CD-ROMs. Most software can't take advantage of the faster disc rotations anyway, Porter says. DVD-ROMs themselves will probably level off at their current "sweet spot" of 6X or 8X. Patrick Griffin, marketing manager for Compaq's Presario line of PCs, agrees that DVD-ROM will quickly take over, with CD-ROMs appearing on only the cheapest systems. Common in 2000, Griffin says, will be "dual optical" configurations--CD-ROM/CD-RW and DVD-ROM/CD-RW combinations. (Why two types of CD drives? To record music from one to the other.) Griffin expects CD-RW to see jumps in rotational speeds in the next year. Hybrid Happiness Combo drives also are in the works; Toshiba demonstrated a combined CD-RW/DVD-ROM drive at Comdex. Craig looks further to a day when optical drives will be the most popular removable medium, displacing magnetic alternatives. "CD-RW and its follow-on combination CD-RW/DVD-ROM product will be the dominant high-capacity, rewritable, removable storage device in PCs by the middle of the next decade, to be succeeded ultimately by rewritable DVD," she says. "Optical's going to win."