Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (712)	12/29/1999 7:52:00 AM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

POLL-Greenspan-making central banking look easy By David Stamp LONDON, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Alan Greenspan, the man who makes central banking look easy, is the Reuters Financial Newsmaker of the Year -- again. Second placed was Wim Duisenberg, the European Central Bank president who showed that central banking is in fact rarely easy, especially if your currency is less than a year old. Reuters has asked economists around the world to vote for their newsmaker of the year only twice and the U.S. central bank chief has won both times. Like last year, he strolled to victory for his stewardship of a U.S. economy which has grown non-stop for almost nine years, and for averting a market meltdown. Under the loose rules of the game, economists selected people who made the greatest impression on markets or themselves personally in 1999, regardless of whether it was good or bad. The U.S. Federal Reserve chairman falls into the former category. ''Greenspan makes management look easy,'' said Duncan Webster of HypoVereinsbank in Munich. Last year Greenspan won points for averting a global crisis with rapid interest rate cuts, responding to emerging markets turmoil and the near collapse of a major U.S. hedge fund. CRISIS SEEMS A LONG TIME AGO That all seems a long time ago now, with much of Asia growing nicely, Russia stabilised and Long-Term Capital Management bailed out. But 1999 was not the peaceful year it now seems. After all, the Brazilian currency collapsed last January, provoking more fears of a domino effect. For David Resler of Normura Securities International in New York, Greenspan masterminded the ''successful transition from crisis to stability.'' Once the threat of international crisis had faded, Greenspan -- or strictly speaking the Federal Open Market Committee which makes the decisions -- returned to its mandate of promoting sustainable U.S. economic growth. The Fed Funds rate now stands at 5.5 percent, where it was before the crises of '98. Greenspan's touch seems to be magic. While economists in the poll have spent much of 1999 forecasting a U.S. economic slowdown, it still hasn't happened. In the survey, 53 economists voted for their top three newsmakers, with three points for a first choice, two for second and a point for third. Greenspan got 108 points, coincidentally exactly the same as last year, ahead of 65 for Duisenberg. Duisenberg's performance is more controversial, although he was rarely off the economists' screens in 1999. Argument centres not so much on execution of monetary policy as the presentation. After all, the ECB did what it needed to do. It cut rates in April to stimulate growth and it put them back up in November when the euro zone was doing better. Also a new Euroland money market was created with scarcely a glitch. Bernard Walschots at Rabobank in Utrecht voted for Duisenberg and not because he is a fellow Dutchman. DUISENBERG BORE THE BRUNT OF NUMEROUS STORMS ''He had to bear the brunt of numerous storms,'' said Walschots. ''On balance he didn't do badly. He could have done better but he has not done as badly as some have suggested. He has had to cope with an enormously difficult environment.'' Duisenberg's difficulties have been as much political as economic and many of them came from Germany. A year ago former German Finance Minister Oskar Lafontaine demanded interest rate cuts just as the ECB was trying to establish its reputation for independence. The cut came but only after Lafontaine -- himself joint seventh in the poll -- quit. The ECB leadership took most flak for seemingly contradictory remarks on exchange rate policy as the euro headed for parity with the dollar. ''It could have been worse but it could have been a lot better. When you have a new central bank there's a very steep learning curve,'' said David Brickman of PaineWebber in London. ''The markets have responded to absolutely everything that has been said ... (and) the currency has gone down willy-nilly,'' he said. ''It's a question of using perhaps greaterjudgment about when to talk about these things and when not to.'' Shsaring thirs place was Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates with 22 points, because the technological revolution is having profound economic consequences. "''While he is hardly on his own there, Bill Gates has to be number one (newsmaker) thanks to Micosoft's pivotal role in this revolution,'' said Philip Shaw of Investec. Gordon Richards, chief economist at the U.S. National Association of Manufacturers, dismissed the antitrust lawsuit against Microsoft. ''The fact that Gates was accused of abusive practices is far less significant than what his firm accomplished in making high technology available to the general public.'' Also on 22 points was former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, who shares much of the credit for the strong economy and international stability with Greenspan. Rubin quit in July and later became co-chairman of Citigroup. But Andrea Zuccheri of Sella Asset Management in Milan noted speculation that Rubin might return to public life as Fed chairman next year, but only if Greenspan does not stay after his third term expires in June. MAHATHIR, STIGLITZ QUESTION STATUS QUO Establishment figures filled the top places but lower down came two who queried the status quo: World Bank chief ecomomist Joseph Stiglitz and Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Stiglitz, who was seventh equal, questioned whether emerging economies could prosper with rapid privatisation and other early liberal market reforms. Mahathir (12th equal) rejected the rule book by reintroducing currency controls in 1998 when the ringgit was under attack and lowering interest rates. Malaysia had another contoversial year in 1999 with former heir apparent Anwar Ibrahim indicted for corruption. But Mahathir also won a general election and the economy returned to solid growth. ''Whatever we may think of (Mahathir's) democratic record, he bashed another dogma -- that of the importance of freeing capital movements,'' said Luca Mezzomo of BCI in Milan. Following are leading positions in the survey (three points were awarded for a first choice, two for second and one for third) 1) Alan Greenspan (U.S) 108 points 2) Wim Duisenberg (Netherlands) 65 3=) Bill Gates (U.S.) 22 3=) Robert Rubin (U.S.) 22 5=) Slobodan Milosevic (Yugoslavia) 8 5=) Romano Prodi (Italy) 8 7=) Oskar Lafontaine (Germany) 6 7=) Joseph Stiglitz (U.S.) 6 9=) Michel Camdessus (France) 5 9=) Masaru Hayami (Japan) 5 9=) Nelson Mandela (South Africa) 5 12=) Gordon Brown (Britain) 4 12=) Bill Clinton (U.S.) 4 12=) Mahathir Mohamad (Malaysia) 4 15=) Charlene Barshefsky (U.S.) 3 15=) Jeff Bezos (U.S.) 3 15=) Dominique Strauss-Kahn (France) 3 15=) Tony Blair (Britain) 3 A further eight candidates won two or fewer points. Fifty-three economists participated in the poll. roflmao!