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To: GVTucker who wrote (149965)	12/29/1999 1:56:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

GVT, for your own emotional health I'd suggest you not go near a Nasdaq tape today. The inmates are running the asylum. I posed the following question to a QCOM devotee: if QCOM were a mature company (which it must eventually be) what level of earnings would be necessary to support the current price? I suggested that a trailing P/E of around 12x is not unreasonable. That would mean, given the last price I saw for QCOM of $610, that each share would earn around $51. Working from memory here, QCOM earnings are currently around $1. Now assuming 35% per annum bottom-line growth for 20 years the earnings would come in at $404, and the stock would be worth $4,851. But even this very optimistic scenario would return investors a mere 11% over the 20 year holding period, hardly enough to justify the tremendous risk in this stock. Taking a backwards approach, if we assume that the risk-adjusted rate of return needs to be around 26.5% the stock should have a price of roughly $44. This exercise demonstrates just how insane I am. Nobody seems to do this sort of thing anymore. TTFN, CTC