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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (13556)	12/29/1999 7:36:00 PM
From: Mike 2.0	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Malcolm thx for your post. First it is quite timely coincidence you replied to me; I just was reading your recent posts re SEBL. Application software is where I work eat and breathe, and there are plenty of opportunities in app s/w gorillas and the 2nd-best app s/w play, healthy, happy app s/w chimps. Look forward to discussing these with you & anyone. I am inclined to agree with you re just buying QCOM. Maybe a "ready, fire, aim" strategy re when to buy is better. I have no doubt your friends you urged to buy QCOM and other skeptics have perhaps a higher IQ than ours! This GG stuff ain't rocket science, as authors cheerfully point out early on in "TFM" (why the "F", BTW? You'd think millionaires would be more cheerful! :-) But such investors have simply not been exposed to GG and instead hear analysts warning of impending doom. One example from tonight's NBR: an analyst (didn't get his name) was warning/complaining that some stocks are being valued on a multiple of 2003 or 2005 expected earnings. My newly acquired GG-based response is "No DUH!" If it is a foregone conclusion that the company's business model is guaranteed to rake in the dough in 2003 and 2005 and the fact that these earnings (actually revenues) WILL happen (always underestimated for a gorilla as UF notes early & often), why NOT include that in the stock's valuation? The chapter 4 graphs were VERY helpful in explaining this. There are a LOT of "high IQ" investors who think they are investing with a safe reasonable strategy; often that includes "value" investing. Suppose your two nice friends treated Joe "Value" Bloggs to Xmas dinner last year. He recommended Fruit of the Loom as a "value" stock. We all know what FTL does, it has been beaten down (still double digits at that time AFAIK), so heck, it's a "value" stock! Your friends might well have bought it, as some "value" pickers had recommended. Well today Fruit of the Loom is trading at 1 & change, filing for ch.11. Nuff said. What went wrong for what on the face of it seemed a sensible investment over this "dangerous techno stuff" is that it is much easier to run with a gorilla with "unfair" extremely long-lived advantages than it is to identify which "value" stocks are just "having a cold" and which ones are slowly but surely dying. I am venting here because I have pursued a "value" strategy up to this point with predictable results. My only "growth" picks, EMC and ADI comprise my saving grace. But even those stocks were not selected with a coherent strategy like GG. But doing so is my Y2K resolution, and look forward to participating on this and GG e-thread. Seeya Mike

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (13556)	1/1/2000 12:56:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Before I start reading the 200 messages that I came back to, I want to first mention a huge "thank you" to everyone in the folder. I'm surely joined by many for whom 1999 was the best year of our investing careers. Many of our portfolios reached new highs on the final day of the year. I thought of all of you as I heard the ceremony surrounding the last opening of trading at the NYSE of the century. If they had allowed three more people into the viewing area, I would have been able to see Mohammed Ali lower the gavel. They didn't, so I had to settle for hearing the announcement. This has been an amazingly educational, fun-loving, and financially successful year, thanks to all of you. Imagine what 2000 will be like when we've got all twelve months to do what we did in less than 11 months last year! The very, very best to all of you! --Mike Buckley P. S. As I was about to leave the NYSE at 9:45 Friday morning, I thought it would be appropriate to look up my favorite stock listed at theie competitor, the Naz. When I saw on the TV monitor that Qualcomm was up $12 in the first 15 mintues of trading, I went back to the hotel and shared the great news with my wife. It wasn't until later in the day when we got home that I remembered that the $12 increase was after the previous day's 4-for-1 split!