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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wes who wrote (33601)12/29/1999 7:54:00 PM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70976
 
Wes, thank you for posting your observations. You said >The last real peak (in terms of equipment orders) was early 1996, but the stocks of these companies peaked around late summer 1995<

True, but the next orders peak was at the end of '97 and the stocks had peaked about 2 months before that. Some may say that particular cycle was cut short by the Asian flu.

In any case, the prices start dropping well before orders peak. [at least 2 months]. Your observation of unbridled
analyst optimism just near the price peak is one to remember.

Here's the relevant chart
geocities.com

Gottfried



To: Wes who wrote (33601)12/29/1999 8:17:00 PM
From: Tony Viola  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
Wes, Re: " Now, how
much of ALL NINE innings have already been factored into the stock? "

I meant to say something like that in my post also, but forgot. And, the "second inning" I mentioned was back in the spring. Your third inning now sounds about right.

Well written post.

Tony


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