Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TARADO96 who wrote (36134)	12/29/1999 8:25:00 PM
From: Marvin Mansky	Respond to of 41369

AOL may get caught in the free Internet issue. They have been there before with the European challenge and also were thought to lose market share when they raised monthly fees. All these problems blew over. I think. however, that the stock is a little "tired" here. I think it has run up quite a bit, so says my broker who is really sharp. He and I look for a drop off to the high 60's before it starts to move forward. I also am waiting for some major news like boosts in enrollments or average time online increases to propel the stock. In the mean time I am on the sidelines with AOL.

To: TARADO96 who wrote (36134)	12/29/1999 8:29:00 PM
From: gpowell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

You don't comprehend what you read very well, do you? Very unlikely. AOL's growth is slowing - therefore the high valuations will be unsustainable. If earnings show a reversal in the trend towards slower growth, all bets are off. You made a short term price prediction, none of the things you mention will help AOl in the next quarter or two. The growth has slowed - a result of AOL's success. Face it, Wireless and DSL users if they choose AOL as their ISP are more than likely to already be users of AOL. So you have to make some argument for an increase in the net earnings from these users to sustain the growth rate.

To: TARADO96 who wrote (36134)	12/29/1999 9:25:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

--John Two points. First, the most recent statement from AOL claims 20 million subscribers (http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1005-200-1499460.html?tag=) and points to a one million subscriber increase from 19 to 20 million between October and the date of the announcement in mid-December. Even compounded, that 2 month gain of one million subscribers suggests a 36% annual growth rate. (Mary Meeker's 50 million includes ICQ and AIM users.) I don't believe AOL's actual annual subscriber growth rate will come out at 36% but it does indicate a decrease from the torrid historical pace. Second, the more important question, as you have often pointed out, is growth in high-margin advertising and e-commerce revenue, currently about 23% of total revenues. Last quarter, I considered extremely good on almost all measures of growth. I anticipate that the quarter to be reported in mid-January will be equally solid. I also anticipate that Wall Street will begin discounting the potentially good results from the upcoming quarter sometime in the next couple of weeks. In other words, I'm looking for a mild run-up ahead of earnings, something that happens frequently with AOL. After earnings--well, that's a different problem. Best --Steve