To: Bernard Levy who wrote (222 ) 1/18/2000 6:04:00 AM From: Dan B. Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1658
Bernard, I've yet to see an anti-TERN argument that I think truly covered TERN's alledged advantages. Salient too in that WSJ article was that they aren't done with TERN yet, and "probably" will include Tern's S-cdma in a new DOCSIS- IF Terayon provides a system compatible with old DOCSIS. WHY is S-CDMA version of DOCSIS unlikely to be widely deployed if included? Heck, Tern's S-CDMA is all over the world already without being included in DOCSIS. You rightly say "The fact it was recommended by George Gilder should not prevent anyone from doing their own independent homework." In that light(throwing out the "fact that it was recommended by GG" in favor of his reasons), Gilder points out that TERN's S-CDMA uses more of the bandwidth available(true on upgraded plant too?), isn't much bothered by the noise in a noisy cable environment(could this ultimatly be an issue even in new HFC plant, as traffic grows?), and allows old cable plant to deliver service right now without the immediate expense of replacing cable. And so I have to wonder, DO we really KNOW that cdma is no better on upgraded plant? If so, Why isn't it/won't it be? I'd like a REAL answer to that, not just saying essentially "it's no better on good cable", as I've heard before elsewhere. Also too, it's one thing to say Old plant deployment is a shrinking market, quite another to remember the GROWTH rate TERN has experiened in that market of late- the whole dang cable modem market is in its infancy, and growth potential would seem to abound even for "old plant" for the time being. But lastly, by it's nature, George says Terayon CDMA is somehow more open-access friendly. He seems to feel that AOL will instigate open access over cable now. It's easy for this layman to imagine that Code Division technology should by it's nature lend itself with relative ease to open access, as GG claims. I think GG's arguments go beyond any I've seen...so while I don't own this stock, I don't see anything yet that I think effectively refute's his thinking here, and it remains the best DD I've got. I'll appreciate any thoughts you may have in response. Dan B