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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Voltaire who wrote (57951)	12/29/1999 11:14:00 PM
From: Cyrus	Respond to of 152472

I'm watching Bloomberg tonight, lots of Qcom talk. They have a report on Qcom tomorrow morning at 5.00am eastern. Best Regards

To: Voltaire who wrote (57951)	12/30/1999 12:17:00 AM
From: jhg_in_kc	Respond to of 152472

ALL, Re: Paine Webber report. This is what my friend Chuzzlewit, the leading analyst/guru/pussycat of the DELL thread said to me about QCOM. ANY THOUGHTS.? I am absolutely schizophrenic on QCOM, truly torn about it now. Referring to the report, he says <<jhg, read this section very carefully: $20 BILLION ROYALTY STREAM = $800 PER SHARE The 45% CAGR of CDMA phones sold could result in a $20 billion royalty stream for Qualcomm by the end of the decade. This estimate is highly sensitive to assumptions, as is any long-term projection. Our estimate assumes that 3 billion phones are sold in 2010 with an average sale price (ASP) of $180 and a royalty rate of 4.5%. If we apply a 97% operating margin and 35% tax rate we are left with $13 billion of free cash. Using a terminal multiple of 60x and a discount rate of 20% yields a present value of $800 per share of Qualcomm's stock. A 60x terminal value???? preposterous! And a 20% discount rate? That assumes a very low level of risk. Finally, operating cash flow is NOT equal to free cash flow (which is defined as operating cash flow less capital investments). And where in the world do they get this???? PE/Growth 1.6x QCOM's P/E is north of 400. To get that ratio you would have to have a long-term, sustainable growth rate of 250% per annum. This report is so full of wishful thinking that I'm embarrassed by it. For example, 3 billion phones -- what percent of the world's population is that? Now subtract a suitable number to account for young children and the impoverished. Only 8% of the present world's population has ever made a phone call. I think you know my thoughts about this by now. It's a great company, and I would willingly pay around $40 a share for it. Good luck!

To: Voltaire who wrote (57951)	12/30/1999 2:27:00 AM
From: JGoren	Respond to of 152472

CNBC news type cast after Hardball and Rivera had report on big increases today in nasdaq. Focus was on Qualcomm and Ron Insata discussed in detail why the stock has gone up so much, it's lock on next generation wireless and that its technology expected to be dominant.