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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lkj who wrote (4671)	12/30/1999 4:31:00 AM
From: Labrador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

Does the report factor in other types of wireless revenue (data, video, etc.), how Q* will invest its massive cash flow?, its investment and royalties from Globalstar? >>While CDMA has the clear lead over competing standards in the next 3 or 5 years, it is foolish to assume that nothing superior to CDMA will arrive in the next 10 years. << So how do you project the future, assume that they'll lose their lead and drop royalty revenue after 3-5 years? So where is Lucent on that technology? I never heard of it -- yet you say it was announced 3 years ago. Should we presume that it knocks out Q, and at what point in time? Everythings a gamble, and you've raised a few questions -- If it weren't a gamble, we'd be using a discount rate of 8%.

To: lkj who wrote (4671)	12/30/1999 8:00:00 AM
From: R. Ramesh	Respond to of 13582

How can anyone make an estimation for something as far out as 10 years? While I agree with the spirit of yout statements, I do have the following to offer. It is not whether Q's technology will be supercede or not technically, but whether such a technology will be economical. See what MSFT did. Win is not the best OS, but I cannot see it being overtaken by anything in the next 5+ years. That would put Win in command for excess of 10yrs. IMHO, the wireless tech for the next 10yrs will be decided in the next few years, and it is very very likely it will be decided in favor of Q. Furthermore, Q will keep its lead as long as they innovate as they have done before. While I agree with irrational exuberance, I still think it makes sense to hold even in a possible downturn after this euphoria ends. To add some juice, in premarket instinet Q is 740+ Regards Ramesh

To: lkj who wrote (4671)	12/30/1999 9:15:00 AM
From: llwk7051@aol.com	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

jkl and board, Lets do a serious discussion of future royalty streams. The Paine Webber report has let the cat out of the bag. I think it is appropriate to try to estimate what we can reasonably expect based on our current knowledge of the state of the market. Paine Webber stated cdma market of 85% of 3 billion phones in ten years. I assume this is not just cell phones in the old sense of the word. Jacobs has already indicated a pc in a phone is probable in the future. How would royalty rates on a phone of this type be set? Royalties on other devices which are not even phones but may need to connect to the internet through air waves. I have no idea of the products and royalties. These may well be more important than cell phones. Non royalty income such as software. Is this a potentially huge source of income. I am trying to get over my euphoria and reassess our position. I welcome any comments and ideas. Also, everyone might want to read this article rightline.net I found the link on the news board. Robert

To: lkj who wrote (4671)	12/30/1999 9:23:00 AM
From: cfoe	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13582

In fact, Lucent's directional antenna that introduces space as a new dimension to communications could change the landscape of wireless communications. I appreciate the concern you expressed and hopefully I can offer something useful regarding this area of your concern. Disclaimer first - I am a financial type and not well-grounded in the technology. That said, I was at the first Disruptive Innovation conference (held by the Gilder Group in July) and Lucent's Chief Scientist was one of the presenters. He spoke about a new wireless technology they were developing and it sounded like what you ar referring to. At first, I also wondered if I needed to be concerned for QCOM, so I asked one of his associates during a break. He very quickly said that what Lucent is working on is for FIXED WIRELESS (emhasis added) and had nothing to do with mobile wireless. He then added a comment that I interpreted as saying QCOM was alone and in the cat bird's seat in mobile wireless. As to eventual volumes and average prices, you are correct that no one knows. However, remember that we are not talking about phones only anymore. We are no talking about hundreds, maybe thousands, of digital appliances that will include a CDMA ASIC; especially by 2001 with HDR. Then there is China... Will QCOM's stock price go down from here? Probably. Will it be higher at the end of next year? I am not selling share one.