Wars Rage in Third of World Nations 

                  By Tom Raum
                  Associated Press Writer
                  Wednesday, Dec. 29, 1999; 3:35 p.m. EST

                  WASHINGTON –– The century is coming to a close with a third of the
                  world's 193 nations embroiled in conflict, nearly twice the Cold War level,
                  a group that keeps track of battle zones reported Wednesday. 

                  In its annual report, the National Defense Council Foundation blamed
                  rising military coups and a backlash against democracy, a trend it
                  suggested could continue for several years. 

                  The foundation listed 65 conflicts in 1999, up from 60 the year before. It
                  nominated Afghanistan as the world's most unstable state for 2000 –
                  followed closely by Somalia, Iraq, Angola and the breakaway Chechnya
                  region of Russia. 

                  "It's going to be a very tough next 20 years," retired Army Maj. Andy
                  Messing Jr., executive director of the Alexandria, Va.-based foundation,
                  said in an interview. He said the growing proliferation of weapons of mass
                  destruction and an increasing world population add to the danger. 

                  Seventeen countries were added to the list this year, and 12 were
                  removed – including two with authoritarian governments, Cuba and Libya.
                  They were removed in light of reduced terrorist violence against President
                  Fidel Castro's Cuban government and Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's
                  "strong control over the country," the report said. 

                  Although the number of wars and regional conflicts was up from a year
                  ago, it was below the record 71 the organization counted in 1995. By
                  contrast, the average in the late 1980s, near the end of the Cold War, was
                  about 35. 

                  "The bipolar 'Cold War' system has disintegrated into a system of 'Warm
                  Wars,' with randomized conflicts popping up in all corners of an
                  interdependent world," the report said. 

                  It cited a recent erosion of democratic advances, including military coups
                  in Guinea-Bissau, Pakistan, Niger and Comoros and a slide back toward
                  authoritarianism in Venezuela, Russia and Haiti. 

                  "This 'reverse wave' could continue for several years and lead to a
                  long-term rise in conflict," the report said. 

                  The list included cross-border wars, such as between Ethiopia and
                  Eritrea; and civil wars such as those in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Sudan and
                  the Democratic Republic of Congo. It also included major insurgencies. 

                  Russia made the list because of separatist wars in Chechnya and its
                  neighbor to the east, Dagestan, terrorism and organized crime activity.
                  China was included based on "political turmoil," the Beijing government's
                  crackdown on religious dissidents and tensions over Taiwan and the
                  Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. 

                  Kosovo and East Timor, where international military intervention was used
                  to end internal violence and human-rights violations, were among places
                  added to the list. 

                  The foundation, aligned with political conservatives who advocate
                  increased spending on defense, lists countries where turmoil has disrupted
                  economies, politics or security. 

                  Its count differs from a more modest one maintained by the Central
                  Intelligence Agency. 

                  CIA spokesman Mark Mansfield said the CIA list, which is classified,
                  currently counts 31 conflicts. 

                  Still, "there continues to be significant conflicts all over the world, pointing
                  to the need for a robust intelligence-gathering capability," Mansfield said. 

                  The CIA figure has remained relatively stable over several years,
                  Mansfield said. The last time the CIA gave a number was in 1996, when it
                  listed 28 conflicts. 

                  Mansfield said the CIA counts only conflicts with "high levels of organized
                  violence between states or between contending groups within a state or
                  with high levels of political or societal tension likely to erupt into violence." 

                  The Washington-based Center for Defense Information, a liberal-oriented
                  research group that has issued reports skeptical of increased military
                  spending, counts 37 active wars or combat zones where at least 1,000
                  casualties have occurred. That's up from 27 a few years back. 

                  "There are more active conflicts today than at the end of the Cold War,"
                  said retired Army Col. Daniel Smith, the center's chief of research. "The
                  superpowers tended to move carefully and prevent client states from
                  getting too far out of hand." 

                  Messing defended his foundation's more extensive listing of conflicts. "Our
                  report doesn't use an arbitrary threshold," he said. "We try to portray an
                  accurate reading of the number of conflicts." 

                               © Copyright 1999 The Associated Press