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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (89112)	12/30/1999 12:34:00 PM
From: Eric Wells	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Glenn - the QCOM analyst report motivated me to do a little research of my own. I found the data below from the CIA web site: cia.gov The data below is for the 10 most populous countries in the world - together which comprise 58% of the world's population. Population estimates are from July 1999, while per capita GDP and Telephone number estimates are from 1998. Note that per capita GDP does not really equate to per capita income - I would imagine that per capita income is less (in some cases much less). Country Population Per Capita GDP Telephones ============= ============ ============== ============ China 1.2 billion $3600 105 million India 1 billion $1720 12 million United States 272 million $31,500 182 million Indonesia 216 million $2830 1.2 million Brazil 171 million $6100 14 million Russia 146 million $4000 23.8 million Pakistan 138 million $2000 2.8 million Bangladesh 127 million $1380 249,000 Japan 126 million $23,000 64 million Nigeria 113 million $960 405,000 Total Population for top 10 countries: 3.5 billion Average per capita GDP for top 10 countries: $5786 Total number of telephones for top 10 countries: 405.5 million Percentage of population of top 10 countries that owns phones: 12% I would say that the per capita GDP number for the 10 countries combined is skewed by the more properous countries (United States and Japan). I seem to recall reading somewhere that per capita income for half the world's population is in the $1000 to $1500 range. If you double the number of phones above in order to try to come up with an estimate of the number of phones in the world today, you would get 800 million. To predict that there will be 3 billion cellular phones sold in the year 2010 is to predict not only an incredible growth in cellular phone sales, but an incredible growth in phone ownership in general (to say that 3 billion phones will be sold in a year probably equates to the existence of more than 6 billion phones in the world). It's hard to pass judgement on the Paine Webber analysis without seeing the data. But I think I can draw one conclusion: the Paine Webber forecast was not conservative. -Eric