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Strategies & Market Trends : Rolling Averages, Their ins and outs and ups and downs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Drygulch Dan who wrote (14)	12/30/1999 3:13:00 PM
From: nasdaqian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31

I use to subscribe to Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities which I'm sure has covered ideas similar to this. I even used to keep interesting issues but in my last move I gave 'em the old heave-ho. Damn! But anyway I'll give it a shot on my own half wits. Wouldn't that idea apply to the price itself since that is the MAs raw data? If you could determine a trading band that represents some x standard deviations from, say closing prices, based on historical averages and construct it around the close and then project it a bit (maybe even a byte) out into the future...I think that's basically what Bollinger bands do except for the future part. How can you project it out to the future much past the number of days which the stock on average takes to go from the top of the band to the bottom anyway because you can never know the direction price is going to go since it's driven by events beyond the technical. So, then aren't you left with just the basic knowledge about where price lies in its average band? Maybe you could construct another band which represents the average range of the first band and guess at direction based on where band1 lies withing band2. And then another around that one. YIKES! And I'm not even smoking anything. Anyway, I'll have to wait for next year for your response. Assuming that some embedded controller in some neglected Russian silo doesn't freak out in the next coupla days, I'll talk at you then. Happy new year. I won't say happy new century or millenium because I know we're gonna have to do it again next year when the new ones really start. Bruce