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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (30824)	12/30/1999 1:08:00 PM
From: Zoltan!	Respond to of 77400

>>Remember that NT forward PE is not a lot different than CSCO's. Yet CSCO growth rates are supperior. So, who's more exposed to corrections? Actually the right answer is they both are... but you'd argue otherwise anyway. from Dow Jones 12/29: Bob Wilkes, a telecommunications analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman, attributes Nortel's gains to "enthusiasm for the fiber optic transport and access businesses," but thinks because it's "come up so far, so fast, further gains are possible but [will be] more difficult." interactive.wsj.com State Street's Davis Sees Bumps For High-Valuation Stks NEW YORK -- High-valuation stocks will have a rough ride in the new year, said Jeffrey Davis, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. "We have been big buyers of telecom and telecommunications over the last few years," Davis told CNBC in an interview Wednesday. "There sort of comes a point in time when you ask yourself how much can you stand. It's like a game of chicken." Davis still likes Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), EMC Corp. (EMC) and Oracle Corp. (ORCL), but is ready for a rough ride with those high-valuation companies, he said.... interactive.wsj.com

To: The Phoenix who wrote (30824)	12/30/1999 1:15:00 PM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

No Gary, the point is that it will take LOT LONGER than what lot of IP enthusiasts hype/believe to migrate voice traffic off the traditional circuit-switched network to all IP based network..........LOT LONGER. If the IP-related company stock values are partially or substantially based on this mass migration happening in the next 2 to 3 years, the reality will prove to be otherwise -- and as result the companies whose share value is supported on this premise will be hurt substantially as the expectations are not realized. NT's valuation is far less based on IP technology taking over circuit-switched network than CSCO shares. So CSCO share price is exposed more if the IP Telephony does not materialize. Pretty simple argument I would say!