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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (30835)	1/1/2000 2:25:00 PM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

"Telecomguy, you say you focus on the future yet you're too blinded by the past to see the future." Actually, it is you guys that seem to put ALL your faith in Cisco's PAST performance (which was an exceptional situation that happens once in a blue moon where a nascent industry takes a company for a ride to greatness up to a point). All I hear is how Cisco's past growth and performance GUARANTEES that they will continue to take over the rest of the world. That to me is a sure sign of being "blinded by the past to see the future" in your own words. To answer your question, of course I see a huge opportunity for Internet and DATA communications in this upcoming decade. Internet Telephony on the other hand will take lot longer to evolve and the jury is still out in terms of what part of voice communication it will usurp. IP by the way is NOT Internet Telephony ............. IP is a core transmission protocol and we will find out how the REAL Carriers decide to deploy IP within the existing framework of voice network. There is a raging debate within the propeller heads that design and manage the carrier backbones in terms of advantages and disadvantages of IP over existing packet transmission technology. Internet Telephony uses IP transmission technology but we will have to see where and how it gets deployed since the toll arbitrage/regulatory bypass advantages are fast dissappearing as the telecom markets deregulate all around the world. Yes the growth in data IS and WILL be much higher........that issue is clearly not in doubt and I am not sure why you have the impression that I do not understand that! But the issue of who will provide the data technology at both the enterprise and the carrier market is what is in debate here as far as I am concerned. Cisco is still a Product based company. There will be lot more competition on Cisco's market because it is lot more feasible to build a better mousetrap (router, switches, muxes, etc.) than it is to build a full-blown network build-out and network integration company that both Nortel and Lucent are. What will and IS happening is that when there are innovative start-up companies with the right products, they will get taken out by the Carrier Vendors at some point. Cisco is unique in that they are trying to do this BEFORE they have the infrastructure to handle the IMPLEMENTATION, PROJECT MGMT and SUPPORT requirement of network infrastructure build-out business. But this is why they have already faltered and will possible continue to falter because simply buying the best product is not the panacea to winning Carrier contracts AND the traditional carrier vendors are not going to sit by and watch Cisco buy up all the innovative product start-ups as we are already seeing. I don't think Cisco is going to disappear as I said many times --- I just think they are potentially in for rude setback and certainly there is lot of risks inherent in their valuation......all upside and very little downside ALREADY built into their price. No matter what, it will be an INTERESTING race!