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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (57639)	12/30/1999 4:43:00 PM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Y2K and Oil - Psychology & Fundamentals JimL: I agree that the media will probably hype the market impact of supply disruptions more than the demand disruptions. Hence my own portfolio is heavily weighted towards long positions in the oil & gas market. I just sold my last tech stock today (PROG) - also my largest position - after a 43% run-up this morning, so my portfolio is now over 80% E&P and OSX stocks. Nevertheless, I am wary of the eventual trickle-down effect from demand disruptions. While the general public may not pay as much attention to demand effects, industry analysts and crude traders will, and the API/DOE numbers will be watched closely. Remember how many times refineries went down due to fires or maintenance earlier in the year, and that ended up having an impact on crude draws reported in the following weeks? Well, I expect the same thing to happen following any Y2K demand disruptions, too. The key question in my mind will be whether the impact of supply disruptions (fundamentals + hype-induced psychology) will outweigh the inevitable impact of demand disruptions (mostly fundamentals). I'm betting the former will outweigh the latter, and have placed my investments accordingly, but you can damn well be assured that I'm going to be on the lookout for demand disruptions and API/DOE impacts over the next two weeks like every analyst and crude trader in the market. Once an analyst, always an analyst, I guess. ;-) Happy B2K! <g> Razor

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (57639)	12/30/1999 4:57:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

By my count, the DJIA started Wave 4 down this afternoon and my hunch is that it could end at tomorrow's close if we continue down another 100-200pts--that would then set up a Wave 5 Last Hurrah Rally the first few trading days of January towards 11600ish----after which we should be on max alert for fireworks on the downside. This scenario implies no Y2K oil screwups on the weekend--or at least none that come to the public's attention until maybe 1-2weeks later.-----The alternate scenario is that the DJ stays roughly flat on Dec31 and then drops 150-200pts in early January on tech selling of tax loaded gains but bases out to launch the Last Harrah Rally into mid Jan----either way, the big cap indeces will likely start hard down around Jan 15-17 but have one last Rally in them before then, so oil disruptions are likely not in the cards.(since there would then be no last Rally)

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (57639)	1/1/2000 5:36:00 PM
From: Razorbak	Respond to of 95453

"Nuclear Energy Institute: Nuclear Power Plants Propel Smoothly Into Y2K" Saturday January 1, 8:49 am Eastern Time Company Press Release SOURCE: Nuclear Energy Institute Planning and Preparation Propel U.S. Nuclear Power Plants Smoothly Into New Millennium WASHINGTON, Jan. 1 /PRNewswire/ -- U.S. nuclear power plants continued to operate safely and reliably during last night's rollover to the Year 2000, the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) announced today. None of the commercial nuclear power plants operating yesterday experienced a Y2K-related computer problem that compromised safety systems or disrupted power production. ''Nuclear power plants are continuing to supply one-fifth of the nation's electricity needs,'' said Ralph Beedle, senior vice president and chief nuclear officer at NEI. ''The Y2K computer bug has been rendered harmless.'' Beedle said the nuclear energy industry's smooth transition into the new millennium is the result of a coordinated, cooperative readiness program that the industry embarked upon two and one-half years ago. Some nuclear power plant operators launched their Y2K-readiness efforts even earlier. ''The nuclear energy industry has utilized the best people and practices available, and reinforced that with many thousands of hours of readiness and remediation activity,'' Beedle said. ''Above and beyond fixing and re-testing some 10,000 computer systems and components out of 200,000 that were examined for problems, the industry developed emergency response strategies and drilled rigorously over the past six months. During the rollover itself, every nuclear plant in the United States had above-normal staffing in place to assure that they could continue to produce electricity as safely and reliably today as they did in the months and years before.'' Four of the 103 commercial nuclear power plants licensed to operate in the United States were not producing electricity yesterday. All four plants have announced that they are Y2K-ready, as required by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, but they are not generating power for reasons unrelated to Year 2000 issues. It is not uncommon for some fraction of the nation's fleet of operating reactors to be off-line for maintenance and refueling at any given time. ''As a result of the industry's preparation, nuclear power plants operated at midnight on December 31, 1999, as usual,'' Beedle said. ''As we move forward into the 21st century, with outstanding levels of safety and operating performance, America can continue to rely on nuclear power -- our nation's largest source of emission-free electricity -- to meet the nation's economic and environmental goals.'' The Nuclear Energy Institute is the nuclear energy industry's Washington- based policy organization. This news release and additional information about nuclear energy are available on NEI's Internet site at nei.org SOURCE: Nuclear Energy Institute -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Related News Categories: oil/energy biz.yahoo.com