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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: llwk7051@aol.com who wrote (4716)	12/31/1999 9:12:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

Year end house cleaning post, in no particular order. I hope I will be posting more analysis from my "shy friend" in the future. For the benefits of those who do not read the thread regularly, it should be known, and I will try to post it each time, that my shy friend is NOT Gregg P. Looking back, I cannot believe that this thread was started less than 6 months ago. There had been shaky moments but thanks to the "group", I think we managed to maintain focus on the company but not minute fractional changes to the share price. A word of thanks to all the contributors One of the main reasons for starting this thread was not only to keep up with the technology that drives the company but also how to value this NEW Qualcomm. I still remember how simple it was to determine that QC was undervalued. Just add up some production numbers, carrier subscription rates, royalty growth, bla bla bla and you get yourself a model. I agree with all that my "shy friend" gave me two fantastic pieces of analysis. This 3 leg approach is not only appropriate for QCOM, but I am going to steal this methodology and apply it to other companies that I am chasing. Personally, I think my "shy friend" should write a book - Three Legged Stocks. It may get more of a following than that book about a game with big black furry jungle primates. Seriously, a good valuation model is very important going forward with its acquired status via a record breaking 2000+% gain this year. I do not mean that as an insult but look at all the new investors on the old QC thread. How much DD are there? Look at all the talking heads on CNBC who felt they must jump on the bandwagon. We all get a good laugh when it is obvious that some of these experts have no idea what QC is about. My point is there will be major decoupling of stock price and fundamentals of the company. On wednesday, Alex Cena (in my opinion the most knowledgeable analyst on QC) was on CNBC and was totally ignored. I am not even sure if he set a target price. A short time later, this Walt Piesomething analyst, who had been consistently behind the times on QC, came up with this 1000 number and the stock jumped. I am not complaining but in the end, I simply cannot rely on Maria B or some hotaire's gut feel for valuation of my largest holding. As the official chicken little, I cannot leave out some doomsday prediction on possibly my final post of the year. So here is: trimtabs.com Finally, as for 1999 predictions, all I can say is no one is even close. Fortunately, we are all wrong in the "right" direction. Most notable is that prediction by the mouth of the south, using his golf score which is not high enough for QC's rise, even after a 8-1 split in 1999. There were also going to be a b-b-q at QUALCOMM stadium when QC reaches 120 pre pre split. Well, 120 went by so fast that we had no chance to organize the event. What will yr 2000 bring? I just hope we can stay on course here and not lose sight of the THIRD LEG. Happy new year and again, a word of thanks to all. Ramsey - reformed, kinder and gentler thread Nazi.