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To: Lucretius who wrote (829)12/31/1999 8:58:00 AM
From: MythMan  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 42523
 
December 31, 1999
FLOYD NORRIS
Remembering Wealth: Life in Post-Crash Silicon Valley

My New Year's Resolution is to file my columns early. This one was
written 10 years before deadline.


SAN JOSE, Calif., Dec. 30, 2009 -- Only a decade ago, the Silicon Valley
of California was viewed as technology's promised land, a place where
bungalows cost $1 million and even the youngest computer programmer had
stock options that seemed likely to be worth millions soon.

But now, years after the Internet crash of 2003, it has become a region
of jealousies and recriminations. Working relationships were poisoned
when employees learned that top executives secretly hedged their
positions, and thus did not suffer. Banks sued formerly wealthy
entrepreneurs, saying they hid assets to avoid paying their debts.

All that has happened even though many of the Valley's technology
companies remain very successful, and the Internet-based economy
continues to gain at the expense of the older bricks-and-mortar economy.
But few of the companies have lived up to the high expectations that
were factored into stock prices before they fell. Many of the highest
fliers have vanished from the landscape, either going out of business or
being acquired by competitors for a fraction of the prices their shares
once fetched.

Among the survivors, employees scarred by the collapsing value of their
stock options now prefer the certainty of higher salaries.

It is the fate of the once-bountiful stock options that has most
determined the current pecking order in Silicon Valley. At the top are
those who cashed in their options before the fall. Next come those who
worked for companies that prospered. Their salaries have helped to
offset the paper losses, and many companies repriced their options after
prices fell, thus saving some value for the employees, before angry
shareholders forced a halt to that practice.

At the bottom, and perhaps the largest group, are those who did not cash
out and whose companies were not among the winners. While many of them
landed jobs at other companies, their wealth has vanished and some have
lost their homes. Housing prices fell sharply after the options lost
value, and have only recently begun to recover. Some financial
institutions were severely damaged when loans secured by stock options
became uncollectible.

The inevitable jealousies reflect the seeming randomness of success and
failure. There are tales of employees who did poor jobs but ended up
rich, while their more competent and creative neighbors went bankrupt.
Younger engineers are angry that they have no chance for the quick
wealth their elders gained, and scornful of those who lost it.

Nationally, the effect on the economy has not been as great as was
feared. While some other regions with big stakes in the Internet economy
were hurt, most notably Seattle and New York City, the effect on most of
the country was limited. Consumers cut back, but not by as much as was
expected considering the declining value of investment portfolios.
Growth since 2003 has been far higher than it was in Japan in the years
after that country's bubble burst in 1990. In part, that was because
American nontechnology stocks were not nearly as overvalued.

Investors have grown much more cautious.

That is reflected in the diminished amount of capital available for
start-ups, and in other ways as well.

Even Microsoft, which became the world's most valuable company long
before it paid its first dividend in 2004, now finds that it must raise
its payout every year to attract investors.