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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Moerman who wrote (3847)	12/31/1999 7:31:00 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11568

Paul, Rules and guidelines were posted in the first couple of messages on this thread, but we have deviated from them over time. One thing to consider when deciding whether to roll over positions or start from scratch is how many positions will be carried over. I personally plan to carry over all my positions for the following reasons. GUMM: I'm awaiting the independent clinical studies for Zicam and what I believe will be better than expected fourth quarter earnings. This stock performed well in 1999, and while it hasn't been a short term trade, it is in this portfolio primarily because it is in my personal portfolio. One day, we are going to wake up to some huge news and GUMM will be trading at 30 to 40. I can't predict exactly when that will happen, and that's why I'm holding, rather than trading this stock. MAT: I think that end of year tax selling could have pressured this stock the last few weeks and that it is a good candidate for a January bounce. I have also posted other reasons for holding MAT over the last few weeks. PIR: Same opinion as MAT, although I would dump it on a break of 5 3/4 to 5 7/8. RBK: Same opinion as MAT. KSWS already started rebounding, and I think that the entire athletic shoe sector could rebound next year. There are some good values here, although I don't care much for NKE. RXSD: I think that this stock will also rally next year and that it has been held back by end of year tax selling. I took profits yesterday, but plan to buy it back if it dips to 10. The stock has a solid base between 9 1/2 and 10 and I think it has upside to 12 to 13. I like other stocks in this sector for a January bounce as well (NBTY and TWLB). TIE: I think that this is another first quarter bounce candidate. This company announced more bad news last week and the stock barely budged. It declined briefly on the news and bounced right back up strong and quick. It's a boring business but I think it represents a good value and has been pushed down too far. Whether we start over from scratch also depends on how much we want to try to mimic a real-life portfolio. I don't think mutual funds sell everything at the end of the year and start over from scratch, nor do I think that the end of the year is the only time that one should evaluate positions that might need to be sold. Like Larry said, I'll go with the flow and would be happy with starting over or rolling over. If we start over, I plan to buy back all my current positions, but would scale them back to our new cash balance. Have a great New Year, everyone! Dan