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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (36322)	12/31/1999 9:51:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

HIGHLIGHTS OF MARKET NEWS SURVEY OF US ECONOMIC FORECASTS WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the Market News weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the median forecasts. -- National Association of Purchasing Managers Index for December Monday, January 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual: Median Range Responses Dec99 Nov99 Oct99 NAPM 56.0 55.5 to 57.8 14 -- 56.2 56.6 Comments: The NAPM index is expected to slow a little more in December to a 56.0 reading, but the fundamentals of the manufacturing sector appear solid with rising orders and production with good domestic and foreign demand. Recent increases in oil prices are likely to push the price component higher. -- Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for December (mln units, saar) Monday, January 3 through Wednesday, January 5 Actual: Median Range Responses Dec99 Nov99 Oct99 Car Sales 7.1m 7.0m to 7.2m 8 -- 7.0m 6.6m Lt Trucks 7.4m 7.0m to 7.6m 8 -- 7.3m 7.2m Comments: Vehicle sales should edge up from November levels to finish a stellar year. Sales of 7.4 million light trucks, which include minivans and popular sport utility vehicles, will outpace the 7.1 million passenger cars sold. A note of caution is needed for the December numbers, however, since auto makers have been known to shift some early January sales to the prior year to make the levels look higher. -- Construction Spending for November (percent change) Tuesday, January 4 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual: Median Range Responses Nov99 Oct99 Sep99 Construction +0.4% -0.1% to +1.0% 11 -- +0.3% -0.1% Comments: Construction spending could rise 0.4% in November with higher spending on residential building. However, this number is hard to predict due to frequent large revisions in prior month's data. -- Factory Orders for November (percent change) Wednesday, January 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual: Median Range Responses Nov99 Oct99 Sep99 Mfg Orders +0.9% -0.1% to +1.2% 12 -- -0.2% -1.0% Comments: After two months of declines, factory orders should see a 0.9% increase. Durable goods orders were already reported up 1.2%, but nondurables are likely to be little changed. Weakness in transportation will pull the overall number down due to lackluster aircraft orders. The Boeing bounce from the massive order for 127 new planes in December will only influence the next few months. -- Jobless Claims for week ended Jan. 1 (change/level in thousands) Thursday, Jan. 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual: Median Range Responses Jan06 Dec25 Dec18 New Claims +11/285 +1/275 to +11/285 6 --- -9/274 +16/283 Comments: In the Jan. 1 week, jobless claims will likely rise about 11,000 to 285,000 from the surprise low of the prior week. Labor markets remain very tight. -- New Home Sales for November (annual rate, thousands) Thursday, January 6 at 10:00 a.m. ET Actual: Median Range Responses Nov99 Oct99 Sep99 New Homes 935,000 900,000 to 996,000 14 -- 986k 848k Comments: New home sales will probably slip about 5.2% to 935,000 after the surge in October sales in response to rising mortgage rates. However, the level is still historically high. -- Nonfarm Payrolls for December (change in thousands) Friday, January 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET Actual: Median Range Responses Dec99 Nov99 Oct99 Payrolls +240k +185k to +300k 14 -- +234k +263k Jobless Rate 4.1% 3.9% to 4.1% 14 -- 4.1% 4.1% Avg Wkly Hrs 34.6 34.6 to 34.6 8 -- 34.6 34.5 Hrly Earnings +0.4% +0.2% to +0.4% 12 -- +0.1% +0.3% Comments: The median estimate for a 240,000 rise in non-farm payrolls is in line with the recent trend and reflects the continued robust pace of job growth. The unemployment rate is generally expected to hold at 4.1% in December, but current levels of initial and continuing jobless claims leave open the possibility of a yet lower number. Most analysts expect a 0.4% advance in average hourly earnings, which is a fairly sizable increase, but translated into year-over-year is still a non-inflationary 3.7% rise. The workweek is unlikely to see any change. -- Consumer Credit for November (dollar change, billions) Friday, January 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET Actual: Median Range Responses Nov99 Oct99 Sep99 Cons Credit +$7.0b +$5.5b to +9.2b 8 -- +$4.2b +$3.5b Comment: Early Christmas shoppers and avid car buying should push consumer credit outstanding up around $7.0 billion. MORE INFO ON NEXT WEEK'S MARKETS AND ECONOMIC REPORTS biz.yahoo.com