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Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MSB who wrote (69574)	12/31/1999 12:37:00 PM
From: greenspirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108807

Sorry about missing that Mike, I planned on giving it some serious thought and then getting back to it, same with the valuation question you asked me a few weeks ago. I'll wing some issues in a hodgepodge manner which relate I believe. I've believed, for quite some time, that the fed has been tightening the money supply because of the fear of bank runs counting down to the millenia, more than the fear of inflation. So, my prediction is the bond market yield has gotten ahead of itself, and instead of moving rates up in the first quarter of 2000, the fed is more likely to move them down. Productivity is absolutely surging in the U.S. due to a combination of management skill, worker empowerement, and the macro focus on high technology and the continuous move to deregulate so many industries. Electrical power is likely to be deregulated in substantial ways over the next few years, but nothing demonstrates this more than the telecommunications industry. DLS is about to hit American homes in droves in the next year, so the internet, and what it can accomplish (business wise) is about to change substantially IMO. The comments Greenspan made regarding "Capital" and how it is determined were especially telling to me. And I believe he will make attempts to consider software development as a capital expense. This change in tax policy should bode well for the hightech marketplace which is heavily software expenditure dependent. The relationship between high-growth and inflation has been debunked. And Greenspan is well aware of that, no matter what he says. He's still a close watcher of the gold market, so if I were concerned about the move in rates, I would keep a close eye on it for an early indicator. Michael